미국의 중국정책 전환과 미중 무역분쟁
Shifting U.S. China Policy and Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute
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초록
트럼프 행정부 들어 진행 중인 미중 무역분쟁의 성격은 단순히 미국의 경제적 이익을 확보하려는 차원이 아니다. 그 배경에는 지난 40여년간 지속해온 중국정책의 전환이라는 보다 큰 변화의 흐름이 작동하고 있다. 따라서 현재 진행 중인 무역분쟁의 성격과 본질을 이해하기 위해서는 미국의 중국정책 전환이라는 보다 거시적 맥락에서 미중관계 변화를 분석할 필요가 있다. 트럼프 행정부 이전까지 미중 무역마찰 발생 시 반복되는 경향을 보여온 타협방식은 중국의 대미 로비와 대규모 미국상품 구매약속을 통한 적정수준의 타협을 도출하는 것이었다. 하지만 트럼프 행정부가 전개하고 있는 중국정책을 감안할 때, 지금까지의 타협으로 수렴된 전형적인 패턴은 반복되지 않을 것으로 전망할 수 있다. 더 나아가 향후 미중관계는 미국이 중국 견제정책을 본격화함에 따라 악순환이 증폭될 것으로 전망할 수 있다.
Abstract
It can be said that the purpose of the U.S. is not to narrowly secure its economic benefits in the current Sino-U.S. trade dispute. Shifting U.S. policy toward China, which has maintained for the last forty years, works in the backdrop of the dispute. It calls for the need to look into changing Sino-U.S. relations in the macro-level. The Trump administration asks Xi Jinping’s government not only for correcting the trade unbalance between the two but also for changing China’s domestic policies. The U.S. used to make a deal with China at a moderate level so far. However, it would not be the case for the current dispute, given the feature of the Trump administration’s policy toward China. In addition, the U.S. policy shift from engagement to containment is likely to continue and aggravate Sino-U.S. relations.
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