거시경제변수와 오피스시장의 수익률 관계에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study aims to drew factors to give influences of macroeconomics index on income yield rate of office building, and analyze its influences. As input variables of income yield rate of office building constructed in the study had characteristic of time series variation, VECM(Vector error correction model) that is used in factor analysis of multiple time-series data was used. Analysis results of the study is divided to shock response analysis to investigate influence and form of variable by characteristic of analysis model, and prediction error variance analysis to analyze explanatory power of each variable about income yield rate of office building. As the study results, the author suggests implications from viewpoint of investment to office market as follows. First, It appeared that increase of economic growth was an important cause to increase income yield rate of office building. Second, Consumer price index, increase of exchange rate made consumer's consumption capability shrink and work as unfavorable factor to Korean economy. Third, Increase of gross money supply generally makes consumer's purchasing power improve and production activity be activated. Fourth, Composite stock price index did not highly affect income yield rate of office building. Fifth, It was also analyzed that corporate bond yield with three years due did not highly affect income yield rate of office building. Finally, It would be difficult to say that index of economically active population highly affects income yield rate of office building. But there is possibility to affect income yield rate of office building so that this needs further study.