VECM을 활용한 오피스 공실률 영향요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to decide macroeconomic variables that affect vacancy rate of office buildings of real estate for profit and exhibit standards for rational decision-making using VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) The results are as follows; First, the office vacancy rate is sensitive to the consumer price index. consumer price index showed a negative effect on the vacancy rate of office. Second, the office vacancy rate is sensitive to the exchange rate which showed a negative effect on the vacancy rate of office. So consider foreign investors who think exchange rate as important factor. Finally, the lower the interest rate increases the demand for office. Interest rates fell continuously during the analysis period, the future, interest rates are likely to maintain a low level. Interest rates decrease, reduce costs of business finance, increase demand of office, finally decrease the vacancy rate of office. We can maximize effect on vacancy rate of office caused by the interest rate at economic center where gather companies.