거시경제의 변화가 상업용 부동산시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 서울시를 중심으로 -

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze macroeconomic variables that affect the price of commericial land in Seoul and exhibit standards for rational decision-making using VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). In doing so, 5 macroeconomic variables(economic growth, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, consumer price and M2) are used. The results are as follows; First, it is found that the price of commercial land in Seoul is mainly influenced by foreign exchange rate, economic growth and changes of consumer price. Among them, the foreign exchange rate is most sensitive to the price of commercial land, So consider foreign investors who think exchange rate as important factor. Secondly, the price of commercial land is sensitively responsed by the changes of economic growth and consumer price. it is because that a lower economic growth leads to a decrease in the investment capacity for real property, and higher inflation resulting in an increase of the function of inflation hedge which has been recognized as a main feature of real property. Considering that it is expected that the potential economic growth of Kora would be declined and the population and birth rate is expected to be decreased, the commercial real estate market in Seoul will be continuously recessed unless the global economy is positively turned. Finally, the implication of the study are discussed along with the suggestion of the future direction.