미·중 경쟁 심화시대 동북아 군비통제 적용방안 - 유럽 CFE 협상 사례분석의 교훈을 중심으로 -

Abstract

Considering the possibility of intensifying the arms race in Northeast Asia during the US-China competition era, it is a very urgent task to find a way to control arms in Northeast Asia. Utilizing lessons from historical success case analysis is an effective way to solve these security problems. Therefore, this study attempted to present how to apply arms control in Northeast Asia, where the arms race is currently accelerating, through a case analysis of European CFE negotiations that are considered successful among various arms control measures. As a result of analyzing the success factors of European CFE negotiations, six factors were derived: the existence of CSCE, Gorbachev's change in perception, the German issue agreement, long-term negotiations, agreements taking into account changes in the security environment, and appropriate verification and control. If the successful factors of arms control are applied to suggest arms control measures in Northeast Asia, it is necessary to form a security regime to build mutual trust, make a breakthrough reduction through mutual concessions between US and Chinese political leaders, and to agree on conflicting interests. In addition, negotiations should be conducted from a long-term perspective, and negotiations that take into account changes in the security environment, and finally, appropriate reduction targets to reduce mutual threats, and specific verification methods should be discussed through negotiations. The arms control proposed in this study is a reduction plan focused on conventional weapons, which will serve as the cornerstone for the future arms control plan that can control nuclear weapons and related technologies. It will also contribute to maintaining military balance and stability in Northeast Asia, which is forming an increasingly unstable security environment.