시진핑 집권 이후 중국의 대북정책: 동맹관계와 정상관계의 선택적 균형

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze changes in China’s foreign policy towards North Korea Since Xi Jinping took over the leadership of the Communist Party in 2012. The relationship between China and North Korea has emerged as a central element of the changing international order in Northeast Asia. Under the circumstances, Xi Jinping and the leadership have formulated situational diplomatic stance on North Korean affairs, which is called in this paper the arbitrary balancing act between an alliance and a normal bilateral relationship. As the Sino-North Korea relationship has fluctuated between the two poles ever since Xi Jinping came to power, it is of ever growing importance to study the strategic meaning and the details as well as the limitations and the strengths of the arbitrary balancing act. In order to examine the diplomatic planning, first, by analyzing the basis of the foreign strategy and its relevance to the Korean peninsula policy of Xi’s administration, this paper discusses how the aggressive adjustment policy which is focused mainly on the US is to impact on the China’s Korean peninsula strategy. Secondly, this paper studies China’s Korean peninsula policy and its changes in detail under Xi’s rule, particularly emphasizing on how the expansion of Sino-South Korean strategic cooperation influences both China’s North Korean policy and Sino-North Korean relationship. The last part of this paper concentrates on the strategic benefits and limitations of China’s arbitrary balancing act between alliance and normal bilateral relationship with North Korea. Xi Jinping and the current Chinese leadership describe their newly developed foreign relations with North Korea as follows; not just does the Sino-North Korean relationship cover the past, present and future, but also does it include both alliance and normal bilateral relations. They express the purpose of the reordering is to maximize the national interests. The arbitrary balancing act between the two pillars has clearly benefited China; it empowers China to define the terms of Sino-Korean peninsula relations. Moreover, it provides means of avoiding the burdens of the denuclearization on the Korean peninsula. However, there are numerous limitations of the arbitrary balancing act as well. First of all, North Korea has been exploring ways to prevent the collapse of the political entity. To do so, it has diversified its foreign policy and pursued alternatives besides China in order that it can restrain China's growing influence. Second of all, the major powers in the region (Japan, Russia, and the US) have changed their diplomacy towards North Korea so as to deepen the alliances and to hold China in check. Given the circumstances, the arbitrary balancing act is likely to jeopardize China’s monopolistic influences on North Korea, thereby it limits the policy options that have been highly self-oriented so far. Besides, there is another evident disadvantage of the arbitrary balancing act; in the era of the turbulent political environment of Northeast Asia, Xi Jinping would not prefer rapid changes of Sino-North Korea relation in order to conserve the strategic assets.