남중국해 분쟁과 베트남의 대중국 헤징
Vietnam’s Hedging toward China amid South China Sea Disputes
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남중국해 분쟁을 둘러싼 베트남의 대중정책은 헤징으로 특징된다. 베트남은 중국과의 거듭되는 분쟁에도 불구하고 2013년 필리핀의 상설중재재판소의 제소에동참하지 않았고 독자 제소도 하지 않았다. 또 2016년 재판소가 중국의 “구단선” 의 법적근거 없음을 결정하여 베트남의 대중국 외교공세 여건이 마련됐음에도 불구하고 하노이 당국은 소극적인 정책 대안인 헤징을 택했다. 베트남의 대중국 헤징을 인과의 깔때기(funnel of causality) 관점에서, 역사에 근거한 정세인식, 안보 및경제의 역량, 해당이슈관련 파트너의 코미트먼트의 순서로 파악할 필요가 있다. 본 논문은 남중국해 분쟁의 배경과 성격, 상설중재재판소 결정에의 대중국 헤징내용을 살펴본 후, 그 요인으로 (1) 냉전종식 후 역사적 교훈에 근거한 협력-갈등의중첩적 국제정세 인식, (2) 안보 역량을 위한 외교다변화, 군사협력 강화, (3) 경제적으로 중국에의 비의존적 협력 강화, (4) ASEAN, 미국의 코미트먼트 한계로 인한 대중국 밸런싱이라는 대안이 불가능함을 보여주면서 헤징이 베트남의 가능한정책적 대안임을 설명한다.
Abstract
Vietnam’s policy toward China amid the increasing tension in the South China Sea is best thought of as hedging. Despite continued disputes over maritime rights there, Vietnam did neither join the Philippines to bring the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013 nor appeal independently to the Court afterwards. When the Court laid out an award in 2016 stating that China’s self-claimed nine-dash line has no legal basis, Vietnam did not use this situation to adopt a balancing strategy against China but adopted a hedging strategy. This article addresses the question of why Vietnam took hedging rather than balancing. This article addresses this question through a frame of funnel of causality: Hanoi’s historicallydependent perception of the world, security and economic capability, and commitment of Hanoi’s partners regarding the South China Sea issue, in that order. The causal source of the hedging can be traced back to Vietnam’s post-Cold War perception of the world: duality of cooperation and struggle. This perception has channeled Hanoi’s security and economic policy of diversification while maintaining independence. With special reference to its maritime dispute with China, both absence of unity in ASEAN and lack of U.S. commitment forced Vietnam to adopt a hedging rather than a balancing strategy
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