미중 전략경쟁과 베트남의 대중국 전략: 헤징에서 연성균형 전략으로
U.S-China Strategic Competition and Vietnamese Strategy Toward China: From Hedging to Soft Balancing
0
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 베트남의 위협인식 변화에 따른 베트남의 대중국 전략이 헤징에서 연성균형으로 변화했음을 설명하였다. 역사적으로 대중국 위협 인식이 높은 베트남은 1979년 중국과의 전쟁 이후 중국과 국교를 단절하였다가, 탈냉전 이후 1991년 중국, 1995년 미국과 차례로 국교를 정상화하면서 대중국 헤징 전략을 취하였다. 베트남의 대중국 위협인식이 높아지면 베트남은 헤징에서 균형 방향으로 전략을 이동하게 되는데, 이 경우 중국에 대한 경제적 의존과 국력의 비대칭성을 고려하여 제 3국과의 동맹을 기반으로 하는 경성균형이 아닌 연성균형을 선택하게 된다. 먼저 베트남은 해양방위 역량의 약세 등 대중국 군사력 비대칭성과 경제적 의존으로 인해 비군사적 연성균형 전략을 추진하였다. 베트남은 중국의 공세적 베트남 영유권 침해에 대한 항의 성명 발표와 유엔 등 국제기구 및 국제사회에서 중국의 불법 행위 공론화 등으로 중국의 입지를 약화하는 비군사적 연성균형 전략을 추구하였다. 그러나 남중국해에서 중국의 공세적 군사 행동이 증가함에 따라 군사적 연성균형 전략을 추구하기 시작하였다. 무엇보다도 베트남은 미국과의 연합 군사훈련 실시, 베트남군의 미국 내 훈련 프로그램 참여, 미국 해양 경비정의 인수 등의 방법으로 해양방위 역량을 강화하고 있다. 동시에 베트남은 일본, 호주, 인도 등 쿼드 국가(4개국 안보협력체)들과의 군사안보 협력도 확대하고 있다. 이러한 측면에서 본 연구는 남중국해에서 벌어지고 있는 미중 전략경쟁과 베트남의 대중국 위협인식 변화를 반영하여 베트남의 대중국 전략이 헤징에서 연성균형으로, 특히 비군사적 연성균형에 군사적 연성균형으로 이동하였음을 분석하였다.
Abstract
This study explains the change in Vietnam’s strategy toward China in response to the change of its threat-perceptions to China, from ‘hedging’ to ‘balancing,’ with regard to a continuous policy spectrum. Vietnam, which has historically been highly aware of China’s threats, severed its relationship with China after the war against China in 1979. But Vietnam normalized its diplomatic relations with China in 1991 due to the Sino-Russian rapprochement after the post-Cold War. It adopted a hedging strategy toward China since the normalization with the US. When Vietnam’s threat perceptions to China has deepened, Vietnam adopted a balancing strategy instead of a hedging. In this case, it considered the economic interdependence with China and Sino-Vietnam power asymmetry, and therefore, selected a soft balancing rather than a hard balancing. Vietnam announced a statement in protest against China’s assertive behaviors and violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty. In addition, Vietnam appeals to international institutions such as the United Nations and international community about China’s illegal activities in order to internationalize the South China Sea disputes, to weaken China’s position and to gain support from other countries. However, As China’s revisionist and offensive military activities in the South China Sea have not been suppressed, but rather increased, Vietnam began to change its strategy to military soft balancing strategy. Above all, Vietnam is strengthening its maritime defense capabilities by increasing its defense and security cooperation with the United States, including joint exercises, military training, and transfer of US patrol boats to Vietnam’s coast guards. At the same time, Vietnam is expanding its military security cooperation US security partners(so-called Quad countries) including Australia, India, and Japan. In this respect, this study analyzes that Vietnam is changing its strategy from hedging strategy to soft balancing, and especially strengthening military soft balancing in addition to non-military soft balancing, reflecting changes in the international political environment and Vietnamese perception of threat to China in the South China Sea.
참고문헌 (47)
- 김석수, "남중국해 분쟁과 미중의 전략적 경쟁", 동남아연구, 24(2), pp.1~32 (2014), 동남아연구소[DOI]
- 김성철, "남중국해 분쟁과 베트남의 대중국 헤징", 중소연구, 41(4), pp.99~135 (2018), 아태지역연구센터[DOI]
- 김재철, "중국의 공세적 외교정책", 한국과 국제정치, 28(4), pp.29~59 (2012), 극동문제연구소[DOI]
- Bui, Nhung T., "Managing Anti-China Nationalism in Vietnam : Evidence from the Media during the 2014 Oil Rig Crisis", Pacific Review, 30(2) (2017)
- Ciorciari, John D., "The Variable Effectiveness of Hedging Strategies", International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 19(3) (2019)
- Fook, Lye Liang, "Vietnam's Responses to China's Maritime Assertiveness in the South China Sea", ISEAS Perspective, 50 (2018)
- Fravel, M. Taylor, "China's Strategy in the South China Sea", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3) (2011)
- Gartzke, Erik, "Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict", International organization, 55(2) (2001)
- Goh, Evelyn, "Meeting the China Challenge: The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies" (2005), East-West Center
- Green, Michael, "Power, Norms, and Institutions: The Future of the Indo-Pacific from a Southeast Asia Perspective-Results of a CSIS Survey of Strategic Elites", Center for Strategic and International Studies (2020)
- Grossman, Derek, "Vietnam’s Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'", The Diplomat, ~ (2019)
- Grossman, Derek, "How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers", War on the Rocks, ~ (2019)
- Haacke, Jürgen, "The Concept of Hedging and Its Application to Southeast Asia : a Critique and a Proposal for a Modified Conceptual and Methodological Framework", International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 19(3) (2019)
- Heydarian, Richard, "Divided ASEAN Hands China Diplomatic Coup", Nikkei Asian Review (2017)
- He, Kai, "If Not Soft Balancing, Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and US Policy Toward China", Security Studies, 17(2) (2008)
- Hiebert, Murray, "Under Beijing`s Shadow", pp.2020, Rowman & Littlefiled
- Hiebert, Murray, "A New Era in US-Vietnam Relations: Deepening Ties Two Decades After Normalization" (2014), Rowman & Littlefield
- Hiep, Le Hong, "Vietnam's Hedging Strategy Against China Since Normalization", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 35(3) (2013)
- Jash, Amrita, "COVID-19: Boosting Indo-Pacific Alignment and India’s Regional Role", The Diplomat, ~ (2020)
- Kang, David C., "American grand strategy and East Asian security in the twenty-first century" (2017), Cambridge University Press
- Kuik, Cheng-Chwee, "Hedging in Post-Pandemic Asia: What, How, and Why?", Asan Special Forum (2020)
- Kyodo, "Japan and Vietnam Agree to Cooperate on Security in South China Sea", The Japan Times, ~ (2018)
- Lai, Tu, "Looking Beyond Symbolism in US-Vietnam Defense Cooperation", East Asia Forum (2020)
- Le Thu, Huong, "Vietnam Draws Lines in the Sea", Foreign Policy (2019)
- Le Thu, "Vietnam Should Update Its South China Sea Strategy", Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative (2018)
- Lich, Ngo Xuan, "Speech by Vietnam’s Defence Minister at the 18th Asia Security Summit", The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, ~ (2019)
- Lim, Darren J., "Reassessing Hedging : The Logic of Alignment in East Asia", Security Studies, 24(4) (2015)
- Liu, Rounan, "Regime Security First: Explaining Vietnam's Security Policies Towards the United States and China (1992-2012)", The Pacific Review, 28(5) (2015)
- The State of Southeast Asia : 2020 Survey Report, "Mun, Siew Tang", ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, ~ (2020)
- Matgorzata, Pietrasiak, "Vietnam Game Between USA and China", International Studies, 22(1) (2018)
- O’Neill, Daniel C., "China Just Asserted Its Hold Over the South China Sea, Will ASEAN Nations Push Back?", The Washington Post, ~ (2018)
- Paul, T. V., "Restraining great powers: Soft balancing from empires to the global era" (2018), Yale University Press
- Pape, Robert A., "Soft Balancing Against the United States", International security, 30(1) (2005)
- Quang, Nguyen Minh, "Negotiating an Effective China-ASEAN South China Sea Code of Conduct", East Asia Forum (2019)
- Sartori, Giovanni, "Conceptual Misformation in Comparative Politics", The American Political Science Review, 64(4) (1970)
- Shambaugh, David, "US-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence?", International Security, 42(4) (2018)
- Stewart, Phil, "U.S. to Provide Ship to Vietnam to Boost South China Sea Patrols", Reuters, ~ (2019)
- Thayer, Carlyle A., "Vietnamese Strategies to Constrain China", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3) (2011)
- Tir, Jaroslav, "Territorial diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict", The Journal of Politics, 72(2) (2010)
- Dang Cam Tu, "Understanding the U.S.–Vietnam Security Relationship, 2011–2017", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 31(1), pp.121~144 (2019), 한국국방연구원[DOI]
- U.S. Department of the State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, "U. S. Security Cooperation With Vietnam", Fact Sheet, ~ (2020)
- U. S. State Department’s Office of the Spokesperson, "U. S. -Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership", Fact Sheet, ~ (2013)
- Vietnam Insider, "Republic of Korea the Largest Source of Vietnam's Foreign Investment in 2019", ~ (2019)
- Viet Nam Ministry of National Defence, "Viet Nam National Defense", ~ (2019)
- Vuving, Alexander L., "Strategy and Evolution of Vietnam`s China Policy : A Changing Mixture of Pathways", Asian Survey, 46(6) (2006)
- Wong, Edward, "Vietnam Enlists Allies to Stave Off China’s Reach", New York Times, ~ (2010)
- Womack, Brantly, "Managing an Asymmetric Relationship in and Era of Economic Uncertainty", Asian Politics & Policy, 2(4) (2010)