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베트남과 필리핀의 대중국 전략 비교연구: 남중국해 해양 분쟁에 대한 대응을 중심으로

A Comparative Study on the Vietnam and the Philippine’s Responses to the Chinese Threat in the South China Sea

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한국동남아학회|2018.11|동남아시아연구 (The Southeast Asian Review)|제28권 제4호|pp. 31-76|DOI 10.21652/kaseas.28.4.201811.31

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베트남Vietnam해양 분쟁필리핀The Philippines남중국해South China Sea헤징거부권 행사자Hedging과소균형UnderbalancingMaritime DisputeVeto Player
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초록

베트남과 필리핀은 남중국해 해양영토분쟁 최전선에 놓여있는 국가들로, 최 근중국과심각한갈등을겪은바있다. 두국가는중국과의해양분쟁에어떻게 대응하고 있을까? 흥미로운 점은 유사한 분쟁에 직면한 두 국가의 대응전략에 상당한 차이점이 나타난다는 것이다. 두 국가는 분쟁 직후 미국과 군사협력 확 대를 추구해왔으나 필리핀은 오히려 최근 미국과의 협력을 축소하는 선택을 했다. 본연구는어떤요인이두국가전략의차이를가져왔는지를밝히고자한 다. 기존 연구는 두 국가의 대응전략을 헤징 개념을 통해 설명해왔다. 하지만 이러한 설명에는 문제가 있다. 두 국가는 각각 2014년, 2012년 중국과 심각한 충돌을 겪었다는 점에서 헤징의 전제조건인 전략적 불확실성이 상당히 완화 되었다. 이러한 문제의식을 바탕으로 본 논문은 두 국가의 전략을 란달 슈웰러 (Randall L. Schweller)가 말한 바 있는 과소균형(Underbalancing) 개념을 사용 해 설명한다. 두 국가 모두 과소균형의 사례이지만 중요한 차이점이 존재한다. 베트남은 집단지도체제로 인한 정책의 조정이 더디게 이루어지는 반면, 필리 핀은 강력한 대통령제로 인해 정책의 안정성이 떨어지는 것이다. 본 논문은 중 국과 충돌이 발생한 이후 양국의 정책대응을 분석해 양국의 국내정치적 차이가 두 국가의 대응에 나타나는 차이의 상당부분을 설명할 수 있음을 보인다.

Abstract

This article explores why the two Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam and the Philippines, choose different strategies to cope with the Chinese threat. Despite the evident Chinese threat in the South China Sea, Vietnam has not meaningfully expanded the military cooperation with the United States, whereas the Philippines, ironically, has distanced itself with its ally, the United States. Existing studies on the topic does not offer a satisfactory explanation. We assign that two cases are examples of “underbalancing” - the failure of balancing even though there is an evident threat. Furthermore, we demonstrate the difference between cases of the Philippines and Vietnam by arguing that the number of veto players affects the outcome of foreign policy, underbalancing of two countries. The Philippines has only one veto player, the president, hence its response to external threats is incoherent. On the other hand, the number of veto players in Vietnam is more than one and those players demand negotiation among them on the matter of foreign policy. Upon analyses on two cases we argue that the former is the case of underbalancing caused by a lack ofpolicy stability, while the latter is the case of underbalancing caused by a lack of policy responsiveness.

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