우크라이나 사태 이후 러시아의 탈달러화국제통화 시스템 구축배경과 추진 방향
Background and Direction of Russia’s De-dollarization after the Ukraine Crisis
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우크라이나 사태로 인한 서방의 경제제재로 인해 러시아는 국제금융 시스템 내에서 어려운 상황에 직면하고 있다. 러시아 정부는 서방의 경제제재에 대응해 정상적인 대외 경제활동을 수행하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 중요한 것은 금융 시스템의 안정을 위해 루블화의 가치를 안정화시키고, 루블화를 통한 대외결제를 확대시키는 것이다. 러시아는 루블화의 가치를 안정시키기 위해 루블화의 금본위제를 시험하고 있다. 금을 기반으로 한 디지털 자산이 발행되기 시작했으며 이란 등의 국가와 금을 기반으로 한 디지털 코인을 창설하기 위해 준비 중이다. 금 생산량이 세계적인 수준인 러시아의 여건에 부합하는 행보일 수 있다. 또한, EU와의 천연가스 교역에서 루블화로만 결제할 수 있도록 한 조치는 이제 점점 그 대상을 확대해 나가고 있다. 중국, 이란 등과의 교역에서 달러화가 아닌 루블화의 결제 비중은 증가하고 있으며 루블화뿐만 아니라, 위안화, 리알화 등으로 교역 상대국에 따라 사용되는 화폐도 다양화되고 있다. 양자 간 교역뿐만 아니라, BRICS, EAEU 등의 다자간 협의체에서도 달러화를 배제한 결제통화 마련에 대한 논의는 지속되고 있다. 탈달러화 추세가 이어지기 위해서는 대체통화의 가치와 안정성 확보에 대한 어려움, 러시아와 중국을 중심으로 하는 진영의 갈등요인 등이 극복되어야 하지만, 과거와는 달리 많은 국가들이 탈달러화에 동조하며 경제적 연대를 형성하는 행보는 이러한 추세를 강화시킬 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
Russia’s external financial settlements are facing difficulties due to Western sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine. The Russian government is trying to conduct normal foreign economic activity in response to Western sanctions. It is important to stabilize the value of the ruble in order to stabilize the financial system and expand foreign payments in the ruble. To stabilize the value of the ruble, Russia is testing a gold standard for the ruble. It has already begun issuing gold-backed digital assets and is working with countries like Iran to create gold-backed digital coins. This could make sense for Russia, which has world-class gold production In addition, the measure to allow only ruble payments in natural gas trade with the EU is gradually expanding to other countries. The share of non-dollar payments in trade with China, Iran, and other countries is increasing, and the currencies used are diversifying, including not only the ruble, but also the yuan, rial, and other currencies depending on the trading partner. Not only in bilateral trade, but also in multilateral organizations such as BRICS and EAEU, there are ongoing discussions on establishing a payment currency that gradually excludes the dollar. For the de-dollarization trend to expand, it will need to overcome the challenges of ensuring the value and stability of alternative currencies, as well as the divisive nature of the faction centered on Russia and China. However, unlike in the past, the trend is likely to be bolstered by the fact that many countries are forming economic alliances in support of de-dollarization.
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