The Ukraine War and the Future of European Security
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought about significant changes to the European security environment. The war had deep historical roots and represented a dramatic escalation in the armed conflicts between the two countries following Russia’s military occupation of Crimea in the spring of 2014. Various interpretations have been put forward and the debate has raged about Russia’s main motivations for starting the war at that particular time. It is understood that the start of the war was a rational action by Russian policymakers, especially President Putin, to pursue the revisionist war objective of recovering pre-Soviet territory. Subsequently, the war caused widespread geopolitical tensions and conflict in Europe between Russia and Western powers, including the US, NATO and the EU. This competition has contributed to far greater cohesion between the two North Atlantic sides, while forcing European countries to strengthen security and defence cooperation within the framework of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Since the growth of the CSDP involves major reforms of existing EU systems, such as CSDP budget allocations and expansion of the powers of EU institutions, these efforts have created very complex political dynamics among member states. This paper first examines Russia’s motivations for the war and its impact on the European security environment, and then examines the changes the war brought to the CSDP and the Atlantic alliance. It then analyses the implications of these changes on future CSDP reforms and European integration.
Abstract
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought about significant changes to the European security environment. The war had deep historical roots and represented a dramatic escalation in the armed conflicts between the two countries following Russia’s military occupation of Crimea in the spring of 2014. Various interpretations have been put forward and the debate has raged about Russia’s main motivations for starting the war at that particular time. It is understood that the start of the war was a rational action by Russian policymakers, especially President Putin, to pursue the revisionist war objective of recovering pre-Soviet territory. Subsequently, the war caused widespread geopolitical tensions and conflict in Europe between Russia and Western powers, including the US, NATO and the EU. This competition has contributed to far greater cohesion between the two North Atlantic sides, while forcing European countries to strengthen security and defence cooperation within the framework of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Since the growth of the CSDP involves major reforms of existing EU systems, such as CSDP budget allocations and expansion of the powers of EU institutions, these efforts have created very complex political dynamics among member states. This paper first examines Russia’s motivations for the war and its impact on the European security environment, and then examines the changes the war brought to the CSDP and the Atlantic alliance. It then analyses the implications of these changes on future CSDP reforms and European integration.
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