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우크라이나 사태 이후 유럽의 신안보질서

Europe’s Evolving New Security Environment after the Ukraine Crisis

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EU연구소 (Institute for European Union Studies)|2015.06|EU연구 (Journal of European Union Studies)|제40호|pp. 35-66|DOI 10.18109/jeus.2015..40.35

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공동안보방위정책European Security우크라이나 위기유럽안보질서유럽-러시아 관계Europe-Russia Relations미국-유럽관계The Ukraine Crisisthe Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)US-Europe Relations
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초록

2014년 2-3월 러시아가 크림반도를 합병하고 동우크라이나 지역에 대한 군사개입을 감행함으로써 우크라이나 사태는 국지적 분쟁을 넘어 유럽안보 전체의 심각한 위기상황으로 확산되었다. 우크라이나 위기는 한편으로 내부의 심각한 정치경제적 혼란상황 속에서 유럽연합(European Union: EU)과 나토(North Atlantic Treaty Organization: NATO)의 동유럽 확장에 대한 러시아의 강한 반발의 소산으로 이해될 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 이 논문은 좀 더 근본적인 이유로 2000년대 이후 세계질서와 유럽질서의 근본적인 재편성 과정에서 동유럽과 독립국가연합(Commonwealth Independent States: CIS) 지역에서 힘의 공백이 발생했고, EU, 나토, 미국은 이들 지역에서의 러시아의 팽창주의적 정책을 억제하는데 실패했다는 주장을 개진한다. 2008년 세계경제위기 이후 본격화된 미국의 유럽 내 안보역할 축소 움직임과 탈냉전 시대 동유럽으로의 대대적인 확대를 통해 이들 지역의 안보와 경제발전에 중심적인 역할을 담당했던 나토와 EU의 내부분열과 결속약화는 러시아의 수정주의적 의도와 행동을 억제하지 못했던 것이다. 이 논문은 2000년대 유럽안보질서의 전개양상과 우크라이나 위기의 국제안보적 배경을 살펴본 후, 중동부유럽에서의 러시아의 팽창주의적 정책에 대한 유럽과 미국의 대응과 그것이 유럽의 안보방위분야 통합 및 새로운 유럽안보질서 형성에 갖는 함의를 고찰한다.

Abstract

The forceful annexation of Crimea and military intervention into the Donbass region by the Russian Federation in February-March 2014 generated a major European crisis situation beyond the local level. The crisis can be understood as a consequence of Russia’s hard-line response to the eastward enlargement plans of the EU and NATO intertwined with the complex domestic political and economic situations in Ukraine. This paper suggests a more fundamental reason for the crisis by insisting that there evolved a power vacuum in the Eastern European and CIS regions during the last decade due to the structural changes in the European and global security systems and that the EU, NATO and the US failed in deterring Russia’s expansionist policies. The US moves for retrenchment in European security since the 2008 global financial crisis and the increasing internal divisions within the EU and NATO were conducive to Russia’s execution of ambitious manoeuvres designed to re-consolidate its rule over the region. After reviewing the background of the Ukraine crisis, the paper examines the responses of Europe and the US to Russia’s aggressive policies, followed by an analysis on their implications for the strengthening of European security and defence integration and the evolution of a new European security environment in the coming future.

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