Europe Divided: How Different Threat Perception Towards Russia Inhibits Military Integration In Europe
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Military integration has been the source of debate in Europe ever since the end of World War II, the debate intensifying due to increasing Russian threat since 2010s. However, despite increasing voice for the need to integrate militarily, there has been very little actual progress in military integration in Europe. What factors are behind such stagnant state of European military integration? This paper argues that Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory can contribute to explaining the puzzling phenomenon. Applying the theory to the European case, this paper shows that the Eastern and Western Europeans are likely to have different degree of threat perception towards Russia. Such difference is largely caused by two factors: 1) difference in national aggregate power, 2) different geographical proximity to the Russian threat. As a result, more highly threatened Eastern Europeans tend to distrust European military integration and prefer NATO as more certain way of balancing the Russian threat. The findings imply that it is unlikely for large-scale European military integration to take place in the near future.
Abstract
Military integration has been the source of debate in Europe ever since the end of World War II, the debate intensifying due to increasing Russian threat since 2010s. However, despite increasing voice for the need to integrate militarily, there has been very little actual progress in military integration in Europe. What factors are behind such stagnant state of European military integration? This paper argues that Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory can contribute to explaining the puzzling phenomenon. Applying the theory to the European case, this paper shows that the Eastern and Western Europeans are likely to have different degree of threat perception towards Russia. Such difference is largely caused by two factors: 1) difference in national aggregate power, 2) different geographical proximity to the Russian threat. As a result, more highly threatened Eastern Europeans tend to distrust European military integration and prefer NATO as more certain way of balancing the Russian threat. The findings imply that it is unlikely for large-scale European military integration to take place in the near future.
참고문헌 (51)
- Bachrach, P., "Decisions and nondecisions: An analytical framework", American Political Science Review, 57, pp.632~642 (1963)
- Barnett, M., "Power in international politics", International Organization, 59, pp.39~75 (2005)
- Beckley, M., "Unrivaled: why America will remain the world’s sole superpower" (2018), Cornell University Press
- Biddle, S. D., "Military power: explaining victory and defeat in modern battle" (2004), Princeton University Press
- Dahl, R. A., "The concept of power", Behavioral Science, 2, pp.01~15 (1957)
- Deighton, A., "Building postwar Europe: national decision-makers and european institutions, 1948-63" (1995), Palgrave Macmillan
- George, Alexander L, "Case studies and theory development in the social sciences" (2005), MIT Press
- Grieco, J. M., "Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: a realist critique of the newest liberal institutionalism", International Organization, 42, pp.485~507 (1988)
- Haas, E., "Uniting of Europe: political, social, and economic forces, 1950-1957" (1958), Stanford University Press
- Harrison, R. J., "Europe in question: theories of regional international integration" (1974), New York University Press
- Fursdon, E., "The European defence community: a history" (1980), Springer
- Kagan, R., "The jungle grows back: America and our imperiled world" (2019), Vintage
- Kanter, A., "The European Defense Community in the French National Assembly:a roll call analysis", Comparative Politics, 2(2), pp.203~228 (1970)
- Kennedy, P., "The rise and fall of the great powers: economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000" (1987), Random House
- Keohane, D., "EU military cooperation and national defense", German Marshall Fund of the United States, ~ (2018)
- King, G., "Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research" (1994), Princeton university press
- Lieber, Keir A., "The myth of the nuclear revolution: power politics in the atomic age" (2020), Cornell University Press
- Long, A., "The soul of armies: counterinsurgency doctrine and military culture in the US and UK" (2016), Cornell University Press
- Mearsheimer, J. J., "The tragedy of great power politics" (2001), WW Norton & Company
- Mearsheimer, J. J., "The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war", Horizons:Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, (21), pp.12~27 (2022)
- Moravcsik, A., "The choice for Europe: Social purpose and state power from Messina to Maastricht" (2013), Routledge
- Muti, K., "Poland: The missing link in European defence", IAI Commentaries, 18, pp.48~ (2018)
- Mykhnenko, V., "Causes and consequences of the war in Eastern Ukraine : an economic geography perspective", Europe-Asia Studies, 72(3), pp.528~560 (2020)
- Parent, J., "Uniting states: voluntary union in world politics" (2011), Oxford University Press
- Rosato, S., "Europe united: power politics and the making of the European Community" (2010), Cornell University Press
- Sarotte, M. E., "Not one inch: America, Russia, and the making of post-Cold War stalemate" (2021), Yale University Press
- Sayle, T. A., "Enduring alliance: a history of NATO and the postwar global order" (2019), Cornell University Press
- Talmor, A., "France should embrace the Transatlantic relationship and help lead it" (2022), Hudson Institute
- Tellis, A. J., "Measuring national power in the postindustrial age" (2001), Rand Corporation
- Walt, S. M., "The origins of alliance" (1990), Cornell University Press
- Waltz, K. N., "Theory of international politics" (1979), McGraw-Hill
- 윤도원, "돈바스 전쟁은 왜 끝나지 않는가?: 존재론적 안보와 러시아-우크라이나 관계", 사회과학연구, 47(2), pp.39~63 (2021), 사회과학연구원[DOI]
- Zaborowski, M., "Poland and European Defense Integration", European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Brief, 2 (2018)
- "Eastern European countries oppose EU Defence Union" (2016)[URL]
- "National material capabilities (v6.0)" (2021)[URL]
- "Belarus claims nuclear weapons mods are completed on its warplanes" (2022)[URL]
- "19 January)/MacroncallsforanewEuropeansecuritypact,Retrievedfrom" (2022)[URL]
- "Poland, Latvia skeptical of proposed EU army" (2015)[URL]
- "EUI-YouGov survey on solidarity in Europe trendfile and yearly datasets (2018-2021)" (2021)[URL]
- "EU and Nato keep nervous eye on Marine Le Pen’s bid for French presidency" (2022)[URL]
- "Le Pen wants France out of NATO integrated command, backs NATO-Russia links" (2022)[URL]
- "GlobalFirepower.com Ranks: Military powers ranked since 2005 according to Global Firepower" (2021)[URL]
- "Macron wants Europe to buy its own military hardware" (2018)[URL]
- "Merkel joins Macron in calling for EU army to complement NATO" (2018)[URL]
- "Poland offers US up to $2B for permanent military base" (2018)[URL]
- "Poland to Join EU’s PESCO Defense Initiative:Government Spokesman" (2017)[URL]
- "Merkel says Franco-German treaty a step towards European army" (2019)[URL]
- "Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead" (2019)[URL]
- "A European army? the German and Dutch take a small step" (2019)[URL]
- "Olaf Scholz proposes creating a new joint air defense system in Europe" (2022)[URL]
- "Support for EU army grows across Europe following Russian invasion of Ukraine" (2022)[URL]