EU 외교안보정책의 딜레마와 우크라이나 전쟁
Dilemmas of EU foreign and Security Policy and the Russia-Ukraine War
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이 논문의 목적은 현재의 우크라이나 전쟁으로 이어지는 유럽의 지정학적 갈등을 유럽연합의 외교안보정책에 내재한 딜레마라는 관점에서 분석하는 것이다. 2000년대 이후 유럽에서 발생한 지정학적 갈등은 러시아의 수정주의적 도전을 한 축으로, 나토와 유럽연합을 다른 한 축으로 한 것이었다. 유럽연합은 출범 이후 외교안보와 군사방위 분야의 정책 발전을 통해 유럽의 주요 안보 행위자로 부상해 왔다. 그러나 이 과정은 동시에 러시아와의 지정학적 갈등을 촉발하는 과정이었다. 유럽적 가치와 규범의 확산을 목표로 2004년 출범시킨 유럽근린정책(ENP)이 갈등의 직접적인 도화선이었다면, 독자적인 안보방위정책의 발전이 낳은 나토와의 동조화(coupling)는 갈등을 구조화하는 요인이었다. 그리고 유럽연합 외교안보정책의 분절적 성격은 이러한 과정을 촉진하는 제도적 요인이 되었다. 유럽연합 외교안보정책의 딜레마는 유럽적 가치와 규범의 확산, 나토와의 동조화, 정책결정과정의 분절성 등 정책의 근본적 속성이 의도하지 않은 결과를 낳는다는 데 있다. 현재의 우크라이나 전쟁으로 이어지는 유럽의 지정학적 갈등은 이러한 관점에서 맥락에서 이해할 수 있다.
Abstract
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 was the result of the intensified geopolitical conflict in Europe since the beginning of new century, in which revisionist Russia posited on one side and the EU and NATO on the other. This paper explores why and how the EU’s Foreign and Security policy has contributed to the escalation of geopolitical conflict in Europe. Throughout 1990s and 2000s, the EU has evolved into one of Europe’s major security players by establishing various foreign and security policies. This process was, at the same time, the one that resulted in geopolitical showdown with Russia. The European Neighborhood Policy, established in 2004 with the aim of spreading European value and norm into the neighboring regions, was the trigger of this conflict. The EU-Russian conflict has escalated as the EU’s initiatives to build up its own defense capabilities ended up intensified coupling of EU and NATO, while the disaggregate nature of EU foreign and security policy provided institutional background for that escalation. Herein lies, I argue, the dilemmas of EU foreign and security policy that the very nature of it brings about unintended consequences of geopolitical conflicts that led to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
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