중동유럽의 우경화: 발틱 3국의 유럽회의론 동일한 출발, 상이한 경로 및 엇갈린 결과
Rightward Shift in Central and Eastern Europe: Same Beginnings, Different Paths and Mixed Results of Euroscepticism in the Baltic States
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여타 중동유럽국과 차별화되는 발틱 3국에서의 유럽낙관론(Euro-optimism)과 유럽회의론(Euroscepticism)은 경제적 이해와 지정학적 위협이라는 동인에 기인한다. 발틱 3국은 유럽연합 가입 후 구조기금(structural fund) 수혜를 통한 경제발전, 단일시장과 쉥겐지역(Schengen Area) 내 자유이동, 인권존중과 법치의 심화 등 통합의 효과와 러시아의 크림반도 점령에 따른 지정학적 위험고조로 유럽낙관론이 지배하였다. 동시에 경제성장과 함께 찾아온 민족적 자의식 고조와 정체성의 문제, 결정적으로 2015년을 기점으로 유럽연합이 취한 회원국간 난민할당 조치를 기점으로 유럽적 프로젝트에 대한 비판적 시각이 표면화되었다. 한편 발틱 3국은 여타 중동유럽국가와 달리 유럽회의론의 동인에는 각국의 러시아계 시민의 반유럽 정서가 작용한다. 다만 러시아계 인구비중과 정부의 포용정책의 정도에 따라 각국에서 이들이 유럽을 바라보는 사고는 차이를 갖는다는 점에서 고정된 상수로 귀착되지는 않는다. 더불어 발틱 3국에서 유럽회의론은 유사성과 함께 차별적 양상도 갖는다. 리투아니아는 유럽연합 가입 이후 지속적으로 유럽낙관론이 지배하며, 일부 반유럽 목소리는 실용주의적 이해에 가려져 정치권과 시민의 주목을 받지 못하였다. 라트비아는 발틱 3국 중 반유럽 정서가 상대적으로 두드러지지만 여타 중동유럽국에 비교하여 미미한 정도이며, 유럽회의론은 통합과정에서 상대적 소외 혹은 유럽적 프로젝트의 부작용에 대한 비판이라 할 수 있다. 에스토니아는 유럽연합 가입으로 발틱 3국 중 가장 큰 경제적 수혜를 입은 국가로 유럽낙관론이 지배하는 가운데 경제적 합리성을 담은 유럽실용주의에 기인한 연성적 유럽회의론이 지배한다. 그럼에도 강경 유럽회의론을 내건 정당이 제도권 정치에 진입하여 여타 발틱 2개국과 다른 행보를 갖는다는 점이 주목된다.
Abstract
Euro-optimism and Euroscepticism in the Baltic countries, which are different from other Central Eastern European countries, are driven by economic interests and geopolitical threats. After joining the European Union, the three Baltic countries enjoyed the effects of integration, including economic development through structural fund benefits, free movement within the single market and Schengen Area, and deepening respect for human rights and the rule of law. In addition, Euro-optimism dominated due to the heightened geopolitical risk caused by Russia's occupation of the Crimean peninsula. At the same time, national self-consciousness and identity that came with economic growth increased. Crucially, critical views on the European project have been raised, starting with the European Union's refugee quota measures among member states in 2015. Meanwhile, in the Baltic countries, unlike other Central Eastern European countries, the driving force behind Euroscepticism is the anti-European sentiment of Russian citizens in each country. However, depending on the proportion of the Russian population and the degree of the government's inclusive policy, the way they view Europe differs in each country. In this respect, it is difficult to attribute the existence of Russian citizens to a fixed constant of Euroscepticism. In addition, Euroscepticism in the three Baltic countries has similarities as well as discriminatory aspects. Lithuania has continued to be dominated by Euro-optimism since joining the European Union. In Lithuania, some anti-European voices were overshadowed by pragmatic interests and did not receive attention from politicians and citizens. In Latvia, anti-European sentiment is relatively prominent among the three Baltic countries, but it is minimal compared to other Central Eastern European countries. In Latvia, Euroscepticism can be said to be Eurocriticism, which demands correction of relative alienation in the integration process or side effects of the European project. Estonia is dominated by Euro-optimism, which has benefited the most economically since joining the European Union, while Soft Euroscepticism, based on Europragmatism containing economic rationality, dominates. Nevertheless, a political party advocating Hard Euroscepticism has entered institutional politics, a move that is different from the other two Baltic countries.
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