중동부유럽의 유럽회의주의와 그 결정요인에 관한 연구: 미시데이터를 통한 실증분석
A Study on Euroscepticism in Central and Eastern Europe and its Determinants: An Empirical Analysis Using Micro-data
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이 연구는 중동부유럽의 유럽회의주의 여론과 그 추이를 서유럽의 경우와 비교하고, 미시데이터를 활용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 또한 체제전환과 EU 가입 등 서유럽과 다른 경험을 한 중동부유럽의 특수성이 EU 체제에 대한 시각에 미칠 수 있는 영향을 고찰하였다. 중동부유럽의 유럽회의주의는 2010년 이후 급부상한 극우성향의 대중영합주의 정당과 그 활동, 그리고 이를 통해 형성된 여론과 관련이 깊다. 따라서 유럽통합의 초국가성과 국가 주권 사이의 갈등에서 발생했던 서유럽의 유럽회의주의와는 차이가 있다. 중동부유럽의 정치에서 EU 체제에 대해 회의적인 정치세력은 주로 기성정당이 우경화되는 과정에서 나타났다. 미시데이터를 통한 실증분석 결과 중동부유럽은 유럽회의주의의 결정요인에 있어 서유럽과 대체로 유사한 모습을 보였다. 교육수준이 높고, 사회적 지위와 소득수준이 높을수록, 그리고 젊은 연령층일수록 EU 체제를 선호하는 경향이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 다만 교육수준이 EU에 대한 태도에 미치는 영향은 중동부유럽에서 더 크게 나타났고, 정치적 성향에 따른 유럽선호적 또는 유럽회의적 경향은 서유럽과 중동부유럽에서 반대로 나타났다. 비숙련 노동자에 관한 변수도 서유럽과 중동부유럽에서 다른 계수 값을 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 기존에 서유럽을 중심으로 진행되어온 유럽회의주의 관련 연구와 분석의 틀이 중동부유럽에도 대체로 적용될 수 있음을 의미한다. 다만 일부 변수에 있어 차이가 있다는 점은 집합 데이터 분석 외에 중동부유럽 내의 정치적 담론에 대해 정교한 정성적 연구가 필요하다는 점을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study conducts an empirical analysis of the public opinion of Euroscepticism in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEEC) using micro-data and compares it with Western Europe (EU-15). Considering the changes before and after the system transition and EU accession, it is necessary to examine the specificity of Central and Eastern Europe in research on Euroscepticism. Eurosceptical political movement in Central and Eastern Europe is closely related to the activities of the far-right populist parties that have rapidly emerged since 2010 and the public opinion formed through them. Therefore, it differs from Euroscepticism in Western Europe, which arose from the conflict between the supranational character of European integration and national sovereignty. The Anti-EU movement in politics in Central and Eastern Europe were mainly manifested in the process of the established parties shifting to the right. According to the results of the empirical analysis, individuals with higher levels of education, social status, and income levels, as well as younger age groups, tend to be more favorable to the EU. This systemic association between individual characteristics and Eurosceptic attitude at the individual level can be found in both the EU-15 and CEECs. Professions have also similar influence on individual attitude on the EU in both groups. However, the effect of education level was found to be greater in CEECs. In addition, political affiliation are correlated to the attitude on the EU differently in the EU-15 and CEECs. Our tentative conclusion is that the main framework of Euroscepticism and its determinants developed by the previous studies focusing on the EU-15 could be effective for research on the CEECs. On the other hand, to explain Euroscepticism in CEECs in a more detailed manner, it is necessary to supplement this quantitative study through other qualitative studies on party politics and political discourse.
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