임금주도 성장분배모형에서 재정-금융정책의 장기적 효과: 포스트 케인지언 동학모형에 의한 분석
Government Debt, Sequester and Long-period Stability: A Post Keynesian Analysis of Wage-led Growth Economy
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 정부부문을 고려한 포스트 케인지언 임금주도 성장분배모형을 구축하고 정부부채비율에 대한 장기동학을 분석함으로써 재정정책 및 금융정책이 정부부채비율과 자본축적률에 미치는 장기적 효과를 분석하고 있다. 임금주도 성장분배모형에서는 실질임금률이 상승할 때 소비가 증가하고 이는 설비가동률을 증가시켜투자를 자극함으로써 경제성장을 자극한다. 정부부채비율에 대한 본 연구의 장기동학 분석에 의하면, 통합재정수지 적자가 증가하더라도 안정적 장기균형 정부부채비율과 자본축적률이 존재할 수 있다. 물론 통합재정수지 적자가 일정 수준을 초과하면 더 이상 안정적 장기균형 정부부채비율이 존재하지 않는 ‘정부부채함정’이 발생할 수 있으며, 이러한 경우 정부부채비율은 지속적으로 상승하고 자본축적률은 지속적으로 하락한다. 그리고 본 연구에 의하면, 정부가 기초수지 균형을 고수하면서인플레이션에 대응해 이자율을 인상할 경우 경제의 불안정성이 증가하고 장기적경기침체가 발생할 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper presents a Post Keynesian macro-model of growth and distribution with a government sector, and examines long-period effects of government deficits on government debt in the time sequence of short-period equilibrium. The macro-model is constructed to show wage-led growth. The main point of this paper is how a stable long-period equilibrium shifts and becomes unstabilized alongside fiscal and monetary policy shocks. When a legal restriction is given and binding that the government debt ratio does not exceed a target value, government deficits shrink immediately through sequestration. This paper examines this phenonenon of the fiscal cliff, e.g., whether legally enforced sequestration would stabilize the government debt ratio and what would be its effects on capital accumulation and capacity utilization. Our argument suggests that, if the government deficit ratio is not big enough, the government debt ratio is stabilized without sequestration. However, when the government deficit ratio passes over a critical value, the long-period equilibrium disappears. Then a macro-economy is trapped into a government debt crisis, where the rate of capital accumulation falls and the government debt ratio rises continuously. A similar story is also observed in the case of government consumption expenditure equal to tax revenues.
참고문헌 (26)
- 고민창, "정부의 금융지출이 자본축적 경로에 미치는 효과", 사회경제평론, (38), pp.163~198 (2012), 한국사회경제학회[DOI]
- 이상헌, "해로드-포스트 케인지언 성장분배 모형의 균형과 안정성", 2012년 경제학 공동학술대회 발표논문집 (2012)
- 이상헌, "Kaldor 類型의 巨視動學模型: 企業負債와 資本蓄積의 動態的 相互作用關係를 中心으로", 경제학연구, 58(2), pp.37~64 (2010), 한국경제학회
- Bhaduri, A., "Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14 (1990)
- Blecker, R. A., "Distribution, demand and growth in neo-Kaleckian macro-models, In The Economics of Demand-led Growth" (2002), Edward Elgar
- Bowles, S., "Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation, In Macroeconomic Policy after the Conservative Era" (1995), Cambridge University Press
- Charles, S, "Teaching Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis: a manageable suggestion", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 31 (2008)
- Dutt, A. K, "Stagnation, income distribution and monopoly power", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 8 (1984)
- Whither New Consensus macroeconomics? The role of government and fiscal policy in modern macroeconomics, "Fontana, G.", The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, ~, pp.Working Paper No. 563 (2009)
- Godley, W., "Fiscal policy in a stock-flow consistent (SFC) model", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30 (2007)
- Hein, E, "Interest rate, debt, distribution and capital accumulation in a post-Kaleckian model", Metroeconomica, 58 (2007)
- Hein, E., "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32 (2008)
- Ko, M.-C., "Debt dynamics, capital accumulation and macroeconomic instability", in Korean Association for Political Economy Conference 2012 (2012)
- Lavoie, M, "Interest rates in post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution", Metroeconomica, 46 (1995)
- Lavoie, M, "A Post-Keynesian amendment to the New Consensus on monetary policy", Metroeconomica, 57 (2006)
- Lee, S., "A macrodynamic model of growth, finances and government debts", in Korean Association for Political Economy 2011 International Conference: Global Economic Crisis and Innovation of Economics (2011)
- Nishi, H, "A dynamic analysis of debt-led and debt-burdened growth regimes with Minskian financial structure", Metroeconomica, 63 (2012)
- Panico, C, "Government deficits in Post-Keynesian theories of growth and distribution", Contributions to Political Economy, 16 (1997)
- Rowthorn, B., "Demand, real wages and economic growth", Thames Papers in Political Economy, (Autumn) (1981)
- Sasaki, H., "The importance of the retention ratio in a Kaleckian model with debt accumulation", Metroeconomica, 63 (2012)
- Stockhammer, E., "Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a post-Keynesian macro model", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15 (2004)
- Stockhammer, E., "Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33 (2009)
- Skott, P, "Theoretical and empirical shortcomings of the Kaleckian investment function", Metroeconomica, 63 (2012)
- Taylor, L, "A stagnationist model of economic growth", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 9 (1985)
- Taylor, L., "Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 36 (2012)
- You, J.-I., "Government debt, income distribution and growth", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 20 (1996)