독립소비지출과 해로드적 투자 조정을 도입한 네오칼레츠키안 성장 모형
Neo-Kaleckian Growth Model with Autonomous Consumption Expenditure and Harrodian Investment Adjustment
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초록
본 논문은 생산능력을 창출하지 않는 독립지출(NCCAD)로서 자본가와 노동자의 독립소비지출을 고려하고 후자의 자금은 부채를 통해 마련한다고 가정한다. 최근의 몇몇 작업들은 외생적 증가율의 NCCAD와 해로드적 투자 조정을 네오 칼레츠키안 성장 모형에 도입할 경우 기존의 모형들에서와달리 정상 가동률로의 수렴이 가능함을 보였다. 이 논문은 여기에 가계부채동학을 추가하더라도 그러한 결과가 유지됨을 도출하였다. 장기 모형에서는반드시 부채의 역설이 발생한다. 또한, 임금주도성장과 절약의 역설은 수준효과의 측면에서 성립한다. 이 때문에 이윤몫의 증가와 부채 기반 독립소비비중의 증가는 유효수요의 감소와 부채비율의 증가를 야기한다. 이는 불평등이 심화되는 상황에서 부채 기반 소비의 증대를 통한 성장은 부채 부담의증가와 이에 따른 금융불안정성의 증대라는 한계에 직면할 수 있음을 의미한다.
Abstract
This paper considers the autonomous consumption expenditure of capitalists and workers as Non-Capacity Creating Autonomous Demand (NCCAD), and assumes that the latter is financed through debt. Some recent works have shown that the introduction of NCCAD with exogenous growth rate and Harrodian investment adjustment allows convergence to normal rate of capacity utilization in the Neo-Kaleckian Growth Models. This paper derives that such result is maintained even when considering household debt dynamics. In the long-run, the paradox of debt necessarily occurs. In addition, wage-led growth and paradox of thrift still hold in terms of level effect, and an increasing share of debt-based autonomous consumption leads to a decrease in effective demand and an increase in debt ratio. This means that in the face of inequality, growth through debt-based consumption may face the limitations of increased debt burden and consequent increase in financial instability.
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