미중 세력전이와 미국 해양전략의 변화: 회색지대갈등을 중심으로
Sino-US Power Transiton and Evolving US Maritme Strategy Analyzing Grey-Zone Conflict in the Asia-Pacifc
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초록
본 연구는 서태평양 지역에서 빈번히 발생한 회색지대분쟁의 추이와 특징을 살펴보고, 미국이 최근 제시한 인도·태평양전략에 대해 갖는 함의를 살펴본다. 특히 회색지대분쟁이 가져온 서태평양 지역 내 세력전이 현황과, 이에 대응하기 위한 미국 해양전략의 변화과정을 중심으로 논의한다. 중국의 군사적 굴기는 지속될 것이며, 미중 간 안보딜레마와 이를 반영한 다양한 형태의 갈등이 확대될 가능성이 농후하다. 특히 전면전의 임계점을 넘지 않는 수준에서의 회색지대갈등은 좀 더 빈번하게 일어날 가능성이 높다. 최근 회색지대갈등의 증가는 중국의 반접근·지역거부역량의 강화 및 역내 영향력과 해양주권의 확장 및 정당화로 이어지고 있으며, 미국의 해양전략은 연안지역 방위에서 대양에서의 해양통제로 점차 후퇴하고 있다. 이러한 전략의 변화가 과연 서태평양 지역의 패권전이에 효과적인 대응일 것인가의 여부는 미국의 긴축국방예산 상황과 서태평양 역내 미국 동맹국과 파트너 국가들과의 관계지속성에 달려있다. 특히 국방예산상황은 미군의 운용방향과 전략에 변화를 가져올 것이며, 이러한 과정에서 해군의 역할은 중요한 변수가 될 것이고, 동시에 동맹국들의 해군의 역할도 중요해질 것이다.
Abstract
This research investigates the trend of grey-zone conflicts in the Asia-pacific and how it contributes to regional power transiton as wel as the newly declared Indo-Pacifc Strategy of the United States. As the Chinese miltary rise continues, various types of conflicts that reflect security dilemma betwen the US and China are expected to increase. Particularly grey-zone conflicts, which do not exced the threshold of undertaking conventional warfare, are likely to ocur more often. Such grey-zone conflicts alow China to strengthen her anti-aces/area-denial capabilty as wel as to gradualy secure and legitmize sovereign control over the Asia-Pacifc region. In response, the US maritme strategy is retreating from projecting power inland from the litoral operation to sea control, preparing for a ‘decisive batle’ on the Pacifc ocean. Whether such change in maritme strategy can prevent power transiton in the Asia-pacific would depend on the extent to the US defense budget and the sustainabilty of the US aliance and partnership in the region.
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