중국의 해양팽창정책에 따른 인·태지역 해양안보동학 특징 분석
China’s Maritime Expansionism and Its Impacts on Maritime Security Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
인도-태평양 지역에서 중국의 팽창정책에 대응하는 역내 국가들의 움직임이 활발하게 전개되고 있다. 현재 전개되고 있는 역내 국제정치 현상은 이론적 설명뿐만 아니라 정책적으로도 중요한 시사점을 제공한다. 본고는 인도-태평양 지역에서 전통안보의 동학이 활발하게 전개되고 있다는 기본 가정을 바탕으로 이를 평가하기 지표로 군비경쟁과 균형의 양태를 분석한다. 분석의 결과는 인도-태평양 지역 국가들은 2010년대 이후 경쟁적인 군비증강에 나서고 있음을 확인시켜주고 있다. 중국의 해양팽창정책이 역내 국가의 대응을 촉발한 것이다. 또한 중국의 팽창정책에 대응한 역내 국가들의 균형 정책이 역동적으로 전개되고 있음을 확인할 수 있다. 균형정책의 중심은 미국이지만 동시에 역내 주요 국가들이 자체적인 균형을 추진하는 균형의 ‘다중심화’ 현상도 나타나고 있다. 또 다른 주요한 특징은 중국의 일대일로 전략에 대응해 인도-태평양 전략이 추진되면서 지전략적 경쟁이 전개되고 있다는 것이다. 지정학뿐만 아니라 지경학적 구도 재편도 동시에 이루어지고 있는 것이다. 한국은 인도-태평양 지역에 중요한 정치경제적 이해를 가지고 있다. 역내에서 급속하게 전개되고 있는 안보와 경제적 구도 재편이라고 하는 변화의 양상과 영향에 대한 전략적 고려가 요구된다.
Abstract
China’s assertive expansionism provokes active responses from countries of the Indo-Pacific. The on-going dynamic processes stimulates not only theoretical analysis but also policy implications for the regional security environment. The paper begins analysis on the recent movements of countries in the Indo-Pacific region, based on the assumption that dynamics of traditional security arises in the region, which is caused by China’s maritime expansionism. It focuses on ‘arms building’ and ‘balancing’ to assess dynamics of traditional security. The great power like the U.S. and China and major power in the region are included in the scope of analysis. The results of analysis shows the regional countries have been engaging in massive arms race especially since around 2010. It also exhibits active balancing movements against China’s expansionism in the region. Regarding arms building, the regional countries on the one hand have been spurring naval building, and the U.S., Japan, and China have been developing competitively their military strategic concepts on the other. As for balancing, the U.S. plays a leading role in reinforcing its ‘Hub & Spokes’ alliance system and expanding security coalitions with non-allies like Vietnam. Still, another particular feature is a ‘multi-centric balancing,’ which means major countries including Japan, Australia, and India also commit to active roles in forming security coalitions against China’s expansionism. The current competitions between China and liberal countries are characterized as a geo-strategic game in the Indo-Pacific region. It implies that it is reshuffling not only geo-political arrangement but simultaneously, perhaps more importantly, extending a geo-economic terrain in Asia. South Korea is not an exception of the recent geo-strategic changes and challenges. South Korea needs to pay special attention to the changes.
참고문헌 (49)
- "Vietnam’s Military Modernization" (2016)[URL]
- "Joint Media Release" (2019)[URL]
- "2016 Defence White Paper" (2016)[URL]
- "Interim Defence Budget 2019-20" (2019)[URL]
- "Mosaic Warfare (CSBA)" (2020)[URL]
- "China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress" (2020)[URL]
- "China Military Power" (2019)[URL]
- "Australia-Japan-United States Strategic Action Agenda" (2019)[URL]
- "Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Expanding as Tokyo Takes New Approach to Maritime Security" (2019)[URL]
- Fravel, M. Taylor, "Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949" (2019), Princeton University Press
- Harold, Scott W., "Defeat, Not Merely Compete: China’s View of Its Military Aerospace Goals and Requirements in Relation to the United States" (2018), Rand Corporation
- Harold, Scott W., "The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation" (2019), The RAND Corporation
- Heginbotham, Eric, "The U.S.-China military scorecard: forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996-2017" (2015), RAND Corporation
- Indian Navy, "Ensuring Secure Seas : Indian Maritime Security Strategy" (2016), Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defense
- "Medium Term Defense Program (FY2014-FY2018)" (2013)[URL]
- 김우상, "Power transition theory and the rise of China", International Area Studies Review, 18(3), pp.219~226 (2015), 국제지역연구센터
- "Focus shifts to Navy modernization" (2018)[URL]
- "The U.S.-Japan Security Alliance" (2019)[URL]
- Mearsheimer, John J., "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" (2001), WW Norton
- "The Indo-Pacific: What’s in a Name?" (2013)[URL]
- "UK and India strengthen defence ties with new agreement" (2019)[URL]
- "JOINT STATEMENT On The Sixtieth Anniversary of the Signing of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between Japan and the United States of America" (2020)[URL]
- "Japan's Security Policy" (2019)[URL]
- "Vietnam, Japan promote defence cooperation" (2020)[URL]
- "2019 Vietnam National Defence" (2019)[URL]
- "Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress" (2020)[URL]
- "Government plans to spend $130 billion for military modernisation in next 5-7 years" (2019)[URL]
- Ross, Robert S., "Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China:Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia", Security Studies, 15(3), pp.355~395 (2006)
- Satake, Tomohiko, "Japan–Australia security cooperation in the bilateral and multilateral contexts", International Affairs, 94(4), pp.815~834 (2018)
- Singh, Udai Bhanu, "Emerging India-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership", Journal of Defence Studies, 12(3), pp.79~86 (2018)
- Schweller, Randall, "Opposite but Compatible Nationalisms: A Neoclassical Realist Approach to the Future of US–China Relations", The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 11(1), pp.23~48 (2018)
- Schweller, Randall, "Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power" (2006), Princeton University Press
- "Japanese call for Taiwan security partnership" (2019)[URL]
- Thayer, Carlyle A., "FORCE MODERNIZATION: Vietnam", Southeast Asian Affairs, pp.429~444 (2018)
- "U.S. Security Cooperation With India" (2019)[URL]
- "Overview – FY 2020 Defense Budget" (2019)[URL]
- "Indo-Pacific Strategy Report" (2019)[URL]
- "India Military Expenditure" (2019)[URL]
- The “Indo-Pacific, "Wada, Haruko", RSIS, ~, pp.RSIS Working Paper. No.326 (2020)
- Walt, Stephen M., "US grand strategy after the Cold War: Can realism explain it? Should realism guide it?", International Relations, 32(1), pp.3~22 (2018)
- Walt, Stephen M., "The Origins of Alliances" (1990), Cornell University Press
- "日本の防衛(防衛白書)" (2019)[URL]
- 防衛省, "日本の防衛(防衛白書)" (2016), 日経印刷
- "在习近平外交思想指引下奋力推进中国特色大国外交" (2019)[URL]
- 張小明, "中國歷代與國際間的關係及規範變遷: 從 ｢文明標準｣ 到 ｢新文明標準｣" (2019), 崧燁文化
- "“超大型政治实体的内在逻辑: ’帝国’与世界秩序" (2019)[URL]
- 赵汀阳, "天下体系" (2011), 人民大学出版社
- "中国的军事战略" (2015)[URL]
- "习近平出席解放军代表团全体会议并发表重要讲话" (2017)[URL]