핵 교리 진화의 공통 경로와 최근 북한의 핵 확전 개념
Common Pattern of Nuclear Doctrine Evolutions and North Korea's Recent Concept of Nuclear Escalation
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8차 당대회에서의 전술핵 개발 선언과 계속되는 단거리미사일 현대화 프로그램을 통해 북한이 핵무기를 한반도 전구 내에서의 실전전력(war-fighting capability)으로 활용하려 할 것이라는 예측이 현실화되고 있다. 기존의 대미 응징억제 교리에 더해진 이러한 핵 교리 진화는 ▵잠재적국과 국경을 마주하고 있고 ▵해당 잠재적국에 비해 재래식 전력이 열세였던 핵무장 국가들이 예외 없이 택했던 거부억제-핵선제사용 교리의 공통적 패턴을 재현하는 것이라 할 수 있다. 이들 선행사례 국가들은 재래식 교전과 전술핵 교전 사이의 문턱(threshold)을 최대한 낮춤으로써 재래식 열세를 상쇄하는 한편, 전술핵 사용 이후에도 전략핵 응징보복을 피할 수 있는 가능성을 모색해 왔다. 북한의 핵 확전 개념 역시 유사한 방향으로 변화하고 있다고 판단되는 바, 한미연합측의 억제 전략은 북측 확전 개념에 대한 정교한 인식을 바탕으로 전술핵과 전략핵 교전 단계가 분리될 수 있을 것이라는 평양의 기대를 효과적으로 저지하는데 집중될 필요가 있다.
Abstract
By way of the declaration of tactical nuclear development at the 8th Party Congress and the continuing short-range missile modernization program, the prediction that North Korea would use its nuclear weapons as a war-fighting capability in the theater of Korean Peninsula is becoming a palpable reality. This evolution of nuclear doctrine replicates the common pattern of the denial deterrence & first use doctrine adopted by several nuclear-armed states, which face potential enemies on land borders and whose conventional capabilities are inferior to the opponents. These precedent countries have sought the possibility to countervail conventional inferiority by lowering the threshold between conventional warfare and tactical nuclear exchange as much as possible, while avoiding strategic nuclear retaliation even after their first use of tactical nuclear weapons. As it seems salient that the North Korea’s nuclear escalation concept is also changing in a similar orientation, the ROK-US alliance's deterrence strategy needs to be focused on how to stymie the expectation of Pyongyang that the stages of tactical nuclear use and strategic nuclear use could be insulated, on the bedrock of sophisticated understanding of the country's escalation notion.
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