CMIP5 MME와 Best 모델의 비교를 통해 살펴본 미래전망: I. 동아시아 기온과 강수의 단기 및 장기 미래전망
Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: I. Near and Long Term Future Change of Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia
1
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Future changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over East Asiaunder anthropogenic global warming are investigated by comparing the historical run for1979~2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006~2100 with20 coupled models which participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparisonProject (CMIP5). Although an increase in future temperature over the East Asian monsoonregion has been commonly accepted, the prediction of future precipitation under global warmingstill has considerable uncertainties with a large inter-model spread. Thus, we select bestfive models, based on the evaluation of models’ performance in present climate for borealsummer and winter seasons, to reduce uncertainties in future projection. Overall, the CMIP5models better simulate climatological temperature and precipitation over East Asia than thephase 3 of CMIP and the five best models’ multi-model ensemble (B5MME) has better performancethan all 20 models’ multi-model ensemble (MME). Under anthropogenic global warming,significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrastover the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future. The contrastof future precipitation in winter between land and ocean will decrease over East Asiawhereas that in summer particularly over the Korean Peninsula, associated with the Changma,will increase. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study hasmade an effort on providing a more reliable range of future change for temperature and precipitationparticularly over the Korean Peninsula than previous studies.
Abstract
Future changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over East Asiaunder anthropogenic global warming are investigated by comparing the historical run for1979~2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006~2100 with20 coupled models which participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparisonProject (CMIP5). Although an increase in future temperature over the East Asian monsoonregion has been commonly accepted, the prediction of future precipitation under global warmingstill has considerable uncertainties with a large inter-model spread. Thus, we select bestfive models, based on the evaluation of models’ performance in present climate for borealsummer and winter seasons, to reduce uncertainties in future projection. Overall, the CMIP5models better simulate climatological temperature and precipitation over East Asia than thephase 3 of CMIP and the five best models’ multi-model ensemble (B5MME) has better performancethan all 20 models’ multi-model ensemble (MME). Under anthropogenic global warming,significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrastover the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future. The contrastof future precipitation in winter between land and ocean will decrease over East Asiawhereas that in summer particularly over the Korean Peninsula, associated with the Changma,will increase. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study hasmade an effort on providing a more reliable range of future change for temperature and precipitationparticularly over the Korean Peninsula than previous studies.
참고문헌 (27)
- Adler, R. F., "The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979 - Present)", J. Hydrometeor., 4, pp.1147~1167 (1979)
- Chu, J. -E., "Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5", Clim. Dynam., 43, pp.535~551 (2014)[DOI]
- Endo, H., "Future changes and uncertainties in Asian precipitation simulated by multiphysics and multi–sea surface temperature ensemble experiments with highresolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCMs)", J. Geophys. Res., 117, pp.2286~2303 (2012)
- Hegerl, G. C., "Understanding and attributing climate change, Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis", pp.663~745 (2007), Cambridge University Press
- Held, I. M., "Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming", J. Climate, 19, pp.5686~5699 (2006)
- Heo, K. -Y., "Methods for uncertainty assessment of climate models and model predictions over East Asia", Int. J. Climatol., 34, pp.377~390 (2014)[DOI]
- 정유림, "CMIP5 모델에서 모의되는 지구온난화에 따른 21세기 말 저위도 대기 순환의 변화", 대기, 23(4), pp.377~387 (2013), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Assessment Report on climate change over the Korean Peninsula, "Korea Meteorological Administration", Korea Meteorological Administration, 22~23 (2012)
- Lee, E. -J., "Interdecadal changes in interannual variability of the global monsoon precipitation and interrelationships among its subcomponents", Clim. Dynam., 42, pp.2585~2601 (2014)[DOI]
- Lee, J. -Y., "Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5", Clim. Dynam., 42, pp.101~119 (2014)
- Lee, J. -Y., "Future change of Northern Hemisphere summer tropical-extratropical teleconnection in CMIP5 models", J. Climate, 27, pp.3643~3664 (2014)[DOI]
- Lee, J. -Y., "How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?", Clim. Dynam., 35, pp.267~283 (2010)[DOI]
- Lee, J. -Y., "How predictable is the Northern Hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?", Clim. Dyn., 37, pp.1189~1203 (2011)
- Lee, S. -S., "Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon", Clim. Dyn., 36, pp.1173~1188 (2011)
- Meehl, G. A., "Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate", Clim. Dynam., 29, pp.779~790 (2007)[DOI]
- Meehl, G. A., "Global climate projection. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis", pp.747~846 (2007), Cambridge University Press
- Murakami, H., "Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM", Clim. Dynam., 39, pp.2569~2584 (2012)
- Global climate change report 2012, "NIMR", National Institute of Meteorological Research, 66~67 (2012)
- Oh, H., "Thermodynamic characteristics and responses to ENSO of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian summer monsoon", Clim. Dynam. (2014)[DOI]
- Seo, K. -H., "Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models", J. Climate, 26, pp.7662~7675 (2013)
- 서예원, "Future Change of Extreme Temperature Climate Indices over East Asia with Uncertainties Estimation in the CMIP5", 한국기상학회지, 50(5), pp.57~72 (2014), 한국기상학회
- Sperber, K. R., "The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century", Clim. Dynam., 41, pp.2711~2744 (2013)
- Taylor, K. E., "An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, pp.485~498 (2012)
- Wang, B., "Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario", Clim. Dynam., 42, pp.83~100 (2014)[DOI]
- Xu, J., "Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3models", Geoscientific Model Development, 6, pp.1705~1714 (2013)
- Yeh, S. -W., "Changes in the tropical Pacific SST trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5and its implication of ENSO", J. Climate, 25, pp.7764~7771[DOI]
- 윤경숙, "East Asian Precipitation Change in the Global Warming Climate Simulated by a 20-km Mesh AGCM", 한국기상학회지, 44(3), pp.233~247 (2008), 한국기상학회