RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망
Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios
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Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carboncycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important forbetter prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigatedby Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) thatconsiders vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation forfuture projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways(RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystemexchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitudein each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increasewith rising of the atmospheric CO2. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetationgrowth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At theend of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respirationincrease in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement ofland CO2 uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onsetof growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase ofsoil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fallsince that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia (90°E-140°E, 20°N~60°N)area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-21st the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are −2.09 PgC yr−1, −1.12 PgC yr−1, −0.47 PgC yr−1 and zonal mean NEEs of thesame latitude region are −1.12 PgC yr−1, −0.55 PgC yr−1, −0.17 PgC yr−1 for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carboncycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important forbetter prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigatedby Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) thatconsiders vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation forfuture projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways(RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystemexchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitudein each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increasewith rising of the atmospheric CO2. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetationgrowth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At theend of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respirationincrease in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement ofland CO2 uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onsetof growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase ofsoil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fallsince that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia (90°E-140°E, 20°N~60°N)area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-21st the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are −2.09 PgC yr−1, −1.12 PgC yr−1, −0.47 PgC yr−1 and zonal mean NEEs of thesame latitude region are −1.12 PgC yr−1, −0.55 PgC yr−1, −0.17 PgC yr−1 for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.
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