CMIP5 모델에 나타난 동아시아 여름몬순의 모의 성능평가와 미래변화
Evaluation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Season Simulated in CMIP5 Models and the Future Change
2
조회
0
다운로드
6
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study evaluates CMIP5 model performance on rainy season evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical (1986~2005) simulation is analyzed using ensemble mean of CMIP5 19 models. Simulated rainfall amount is underestimated than the observed and onset and termination of rainy season are earlier in the simulation. Compared with evolution timing, duration of the rainy season is uncertain with large model spread. This area-averaged analysis results mix relative differences among the models. All model show similarity in the underestimated rainfall, but there are quite large difference in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The model difference is shown in horizontal distribution analysis. BEST and WORST group is selected based on skill score. BEST shows better performance in northward movement of the rain band, summer monsoon domain. Especially, meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature and low-level circulation for evolving frontal system is quite well captured in BEST. According to RCP8.5, CMIP5 projects earlier onset, delayed termination and longer duration of the rainy season with increasing rainfall amount at the end of 21st century. BEST and WORST shows similar projection for the rainy season evolution timing, meanwhile there are large discrepancy in thermodynamic structure. BEST and WORST in future projection are different in moisture flux, vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and the subsequent unstable changes in the conditional instability.
Abstract
This study evaluates CMIP5 model performance on rainy season evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical (1986~2005) simulation is analyzed using ensemble mean of CMIP5 19 models. Simulated rainfall amount is underestimated than the observed and onset and termination of rainy season are earlier in the simulation. Compared with evolution timing, duration of the rainy season is uncertain with large model spread. This area-averaged analysis results mix relative differences among the models. All model show similarity in the underestimated rainfall, but there are quite large difference in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The model difference is shown in horizontal distribution analysis. BEST and WORST group is selected based on skill score. BEST shows better performance in northward movement of the rain band, summer monsoon domain. Especially, meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature and low-level circulation for evolving frontal system is quite well captured in BEST. According to RCP8.5, CMIP5 projects earlier onset, delayed termination and longer duration of the rainy season with increasing rainfall amount at the end of 21st century. BEST and WORST shows similar projection for the rainy season evolution timing, meanwhile there are large discrepancy in thermodynamic structure. BEST and WORST in future projection are different in moisture flux, vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and the subsequent unstable changes in the conditional instability.
참고문헌 (29)
- Bolton, D., "The computation of equivalent potential temperature", Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, pp.1046~1053 (1980)
- Kyung-On Boo, "Evaluating the East Asian monsoon simulation in climate models", Journal of Geophysical Research, 116(D1) (2011), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Bao Qing, "Projected Changes in Asian Summer Monsoon in RCP Scenarios of CMIP5", Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5(1), pp.43~48 (2015), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
- Ding Yihui, "The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview", Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 89(1-4), pp.117~142 (2005), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Song-You HONG, "Comparison of Heavy Rainfall Mechanisms in Korea and the Central US", Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 82(5), pp.1469~1479 (2004), Meteorological Society of Japan[DOI]
- 김진연, "극저기압에 의한 한반도 강설 발달기구 분석", 한국지구과학회지, 34(7), pp.645~661 (2013), 한국지구과학회
- Akio Kitoh, "Effects of Mountain Uplift on East Asian Summer Climate Investigated by a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM", Journal of Climate, 17(4), pp.783~802 (2004), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- R. H. Kripalani, "Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4", Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 87(1-4), pp.1~28 (2007), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Kurz, M., "The role of diagnostic tools in modern weather forecasting", Meteor. Appl., 1, pp.45~67 (1994)
- Shoji Kusunoki, "Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models", Climate Dynamics, 38(9-10), pp.2055~2072 (2012), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Kusunoki, S., "Are CMIP5 models better than CMIP3 models in simulating precipitation over East Asia?", J. Climate, 28, pp.5601~5621 (2015)[DOI]
- Dong-Kyou Lee, "Application of the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation to the Interpretation of the Synoptic-Scale Dynamics of a Heavy Rainfall Case over East Asia", 한국기상학회지, 44(1), pp.49~68 (2008), 한국기상학회
- June-Yi Lee, "How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?", Climate Dynamics, 35(2-3), pp.267~283 (2010), Springer Nature[DOI]
- June-Yi Lee, "How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?", Climate Dynamics, 37(5-6), pp.1189~1203 (2011), Springer Nature[DOI]
- June-Yi Lee, "Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5", Climate Dynamics, 42(1-2), pp.101~119 (2014), Springer Nature[DOI]
- 이준이, "Effects of Mountain Uplift on Global Monsoon Precipitation", 한국기상학회지, 51(3), pp.275~290 (2015), 한국기상학회
- Sun-Seon Lee, "Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon", Climate Dynamics, 36(5-6), pp.1173~1188 (2011), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Riyu Lu, "East Asian Precipitation Increase under the Global Warming", 한국기상학회지, 43(3), pp.267~272 (2007), 한국기상학회
- Seung-Ki MIN, "East Asian Climate Change in the 21st Century as Simulated by the Coupled Climate Model ECHO-G under IPCC SRES Scenarios", Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 84(1), pp.1~26 (2006), Meteorological Society of Japan[DOI]
- Ninomiya, K., "Large-scale circulations over East Asia during Baiu period of 1979", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 64, pp.409~429 (1986)
- 서경환, "장마의 재조명", 대기, 21(2), pp.109~121 (2011), 한국기상학회
- Kyong-Hwan Seo, "Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP3 Models: Results from the Best Model Ensemble", Journal of Climate, 26(5), pp.1807~1817 (2013), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kyong-Hwan Seo, "Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP5 Coupled Models", Journal of Climate, 26(19), pp.7662~7675 (2013), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kyong-Hwam Seo, "Northern East Asian Monsoon Precipitation Revealed by Airmass Variability and Its Prediction", Journal of Climate, 28(15), pp.6221~6233 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- 서예원, "Future Change of Extreme Temperature Climate Indices over East Asia with Uncertainties Estimation in the CMIP5", 한국기상학회지, 50(5), pp.57~72 (2014), 한국기상학회
- K. R. Sperber, "The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century", Climate Dynamics, 41(9-10), pp.2711~2744 (2013), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Taylor, K. E., "Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram", J. Geophys. Res., 106, pp.7183~7192 (2001)
- Wang, B., "Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon", J. Climate, 15, pp.386~398 (2002)
- Yaocun Zhang, "Seasonal evolution of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet core over East Asia", Geophysical Research Letters, 33(11) (2006), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]