다중 지역기후모델을 이용한 동아시아 상세 기후변화 전망
Climate Change Projections over CORDEX East Asia Domain using Multi-RCMs
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초록
In this study, global climate change scenario by HadGEM2-AO is dynamically downscaledusing 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX) - East Asia. All RCMs with 50-km horizontal resolution are integrated for continuous 71years (1979-2049). In the evaluation of historical runs, all models tend to overestimate precipitation overthe subtropical western North Pacific. For the surface air temperature, all models have cold biases overthe East Asian continent compared to the observation. In the future projections, all models show similarchanges in precipitation such as increasing precipitation over the tropical oceans and slightly decreasingprecipitation over the East China Sea. In the mid-latitudes, convective precipitation tends to increase dueto the enhanced convective instability, while non-convective precipitation tends to decrease slightly dueto the changes in subtropical high and monsoon circulation. For surface air temperature, the warmingtendency over the entire domain is captured by all models and it is larger in high latitude regions. Thewarming temperature is related to the increase in longwave radiation, which leads to prominent increase inminimum surface air temperature.
Abstract
In this study, global climate change scenario by HadGEM2-AO is dynamically downscaledusing 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX) - East Asia. All RCMs with 50-km horizontal resolution are integrated for continuous 71years (1979-2049). In the evaluation of historical runs, all models tend to overestimate precipitation overthe subtropical western North Pacific. For the surface air temperature, all models have cold biases overthe East Asian continent compared to the observation. In the future projections, all models show similarchanges in precipitation such as increasing precipitation over the tropical oceans and slightly decreasingprecipitation over the East China Sea. In the mid-latitudes, convective precipitation tends to increase dueto the enhanced convective instability, while non-convective precipitation tends to decrease slightly dueto the changes in subtropical high and monsoon circulation. For surface air temperature, the warmingtendency over the entire domain is captured by all models and it is larger in high latitude regions. Thewarming temperature is related to the increase in longwave radiation, which leads to prominent increase inminimum surface air temperature.
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