RegCM4.0을 활용한 CORDEX II 동아시아 지역의 21C 중·후반 기후 변화 전망
Prospect of Climate Changes for the Mid and Late 21st Century Using RegCM4.0 over CORDEX II East Asian Region
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In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2- AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to 3.0oC in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than 100 mm day−1. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase (1.0~2.5oC) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase (3.0~6.0oC) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.
Abstract
In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2- AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to 3.0oC in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than 100 mm day−1. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase (1.0~2.5oC) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase (3.0~6.0oC) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.
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