CMIP5 MME와 Best 모델의 비교를 통해 살펴본 미래전망: II. 동아시아 단 · 장기 미래기후전망에 대한 열역학적 및 역학적 분석
Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: II. The Thermodynamic and Dynamic Analysis on Near and Long-Term Future Climate Change over East Asia
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The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al. (2014) study noted that the 20 models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models’ multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed. As a result, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter and summer over EA. However, over the Korean Peninsula, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter, whereas the thermodynamic factor causes the higher increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal summer. Therefore, it can be noted that the difference between MME and B5MME on the change in precipitation is affected by dynamic (thermodynamic) factor during the boreal winter (summer) over the Korean Peninsula.
Abstract
The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al. (2014) study noted that the 20 models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models’ multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed. As a result, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter and summer over EA. However, over the Korean Peninsula, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter, whereas the thermodynamic factor causes the higher increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal summer. Therefore, it can be noted that the difference between MME and B5MME on the change in precipitation is affected by dynamic (thermodynamic) factor during the boreal winter (summer) over the Korean Peninsula.
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