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21세기 한반도 기후변화 전망: WRF를 이용한 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 기온과 강수

Projection of 21st Century Climate over Korean Peninsula: Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by WRFV3.4 Based on RCP4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios

최연우|조세라|홍자영|안중배
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)|2014.12|대기 (Atmosphere)|제24권 제4호|pp. 541-554

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키워드

WRFHadGEM2-AOIPCC RCP scenariofuture regional climate change
주제분류대기과학

초록

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamicallydownscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produceddata is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF andextreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical(1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, thetemperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and 4.6oC inthe RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperatureincreases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. Theannual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about 0.3 mm day−1 in RCP4.5 scenarioand 0.5 mm day−1 in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperatureand precipitation. For temperature, the EOF 1st modes of all scenarios in summer and wintershow that temperature increase with latitude. The 2nd mode of EOF of each scenario showsthe natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over theKorean Peninsula projected increases in EOF 1st modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate,the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30oC per year(DAYTX30) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above 20 mm day−1 per year (DAYPR20) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

Abstract

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamicallydownscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produceddata is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF andextreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical(1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, thetemperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and 4.6oC inthe RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperatureincreases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. Theannual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about 0.3 mm day−1 in RCP4.5 scenarioand 0.5 mm day−1 in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperatureand precipitation. For temperature, the EOF 1st modes of all scenarios in summer and wintershow that temperature increase with latitude. The 2nd mode of EOF of each scenario showsthe natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over theKorean Peninsula projected increases in EOF 1st modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate,the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30oC per year(DAYTX30) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above 20 mm day−1 per year (DAYPR20) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

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