지역다자주의 틀에서의 미-중 경쟁과 한국의 다자안보전략구상: ‘아세안 중심성’(ASEAN Centrality)의 교훈
US-China Rivalry in Multilateral Regional Security and Korea’s Strategic Choice: A Lesson from ‘ASEAN Centrality’
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냉전종식 이후 동북아시아에도 지역다자안보협력 수립을 위한 많은 학문적, 정책적 노력이 있어왔으나 여전히 지역차원의 협력체가 부재한 실정이다. 본고에서는 이제껏 많은 학자들이 논의해 온 지역협력의 제도화 현황과 한계 등에 대한 논의보다는 미중 패권경쟁이 다자안보영역으로까지 확대되고 있는 배경과 상황을 고찰함으로써 한국과 같은 상대적 약소국이나 중견국이 어떠한 전략적 선택을 해야 할지에 대해 논하고자 한다. 본고는 강대국 간 불필요한 대립과 긴장관계로 인한 안보딜레마의 충격을 완화 할 일환으로 쌍무적 동맹관계를 굳건히 유지하되 다자간 협력체를 동시에 추구하는 ‘양-다자’ 협력전략을 발전시키는 동시에, 한미일, 한미중, 한중러 등 소다자적 협력을 활성화하는 네트워크외교를 통한 다자주의적 접근을 배가할 것을 주장한다. 또한, 소프트파워 영역에서의 주도적 역할을 모색하는 것이 현실적으로 현명한 전략적 판단임을 강조한다. 하지만 이러한 외교안보노력은 강대국 국제정치의 향방이나 지정학적 상황변화에 의해 좌초할 가능성이 있으므로 종합적 국력을 강화하는 정책을 통해 강대국 이권과 패권에 휘둘릴 가능성을 줄여나가야 한다.
Abstract
Over the past decades, much scholarly and policy efforts have been made in order to seek the means of advancing and institutionalizing multilateral regional security cooperation in Northeast Asia. Yet, the region still lacks in a formal regional security cooperation entity. This paper intends not to discuss the widely-discussed achievements and limits of developing such an entity. Instead, the paper examines the background, processes, and impacts of the US-China rivalry in the field of multilateral regional security, both at the regional and global levels. Through this examination, the paper discusses how relatively weaker states in the region, including Korea, have been influenced by great powers’ competition over multilateralism and what these small and middle powers could and should do to maintain their own leverage. Taking a lesson from ASEAN, which has developed its regional identity and influences through its ‘collective voices,’ the paper argues that while Korea maintains a strong bilateral security alliance with the US, it should develop bi-multilateral mechanisms, minilateral cooperation systems, and other various multilateral approaches to effectively deal with regional security threats. Given limited national capacities compared to those of regional great powers, it would be wiser for Korea to focus on taking initiatives in the areas of soft power when pursuing multilateral security initiatives. However, such diplomatic efforts could be frustrated depending upon great power politics and changing geopolitical situations. Therefore, Korea should strengthen its comprehensive national power that incorporates military, economic, cultural, and other national merits.
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