캐나다 중견국 외교의 전진과 후퇴: 호주, 일본과의 비교를 통한 요인 분석
Active or Passive in Middle Power Diplomacy?: Comparing Cases from Canada, Australia and Japan
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중견국 외교는 시기별 그리고 국가별로 상승과 하향을 보여 왔다. 그런데 많은 연구들이 한두 국가에 국한되거나 한두 사례의 분석에 그치면서, 중견국 외교의 성함과 쇠함을 동시에 설명하는 데 한계를 보여 왔다. 게다가 많은 연구가 국제 구조 변수에 치중하고 국내 변수는제시하는 수준에 멈추는 경향이 있었다. 그러나 본 연구는 국제 구조변수와 국내 변수의 상호작용을 제시하는 신고전적 현실주의 이론틀을 차용하여, 이론적 정합성을 추구하였고, 사례 분석도 중견국 외교가 적극적 그리고 소극적으로 전개되었을 경우를 모두 다루며, 시간적, 공간적, 그리고 사안적 변화를 주고자 했다. 중견국 외교의 대표격인 캐나다를 호주와 일본과 비교했을 때, 국제통상 영역에서 국제 구조상으로 대안책이 있었던 캐나다는 소극적인 모습을 보였고, 그렇지 않았던 호주와 일본은 적극적으로 추진해야 할 압력을 받았다. 다른 한편, ‘오타와 프로세스’에서 강대국의 포섭이 어려워지자, 캐나다는 적극적으로 사회 세력과의 연대를 통한 중견국 외교를 펼친다. 즉, 국제 구조상의 제약으로 강대국과의 연합이라는 대안책이없을 경우, 중견국 외교가 더욱 적극적으로 추진되는 모습이 발견된다. 그리고 영향력 있는 국내 세력의 존재는 그 중견국 외교의 실질적내용을 채운다.
Abstract
What causes ups and downs in middle power diplomacy? The existing studies tend to analyze one, or two, cases of a single, or at most two countries and thus fail to identify and support the suggested causation. They also have a tendency to be occupied with international factors, only to pay lip-service to domestic factors. The present study, however, provides a systematic theoretical framework, which integrate both international and domestic factors, drawing insights from neoclassical realism. In addition, the article sets up a research design, in which multiple cases from Canada along with Australia and Japan are compared, overcoming the limitation in the extant literature. The research finds that whether middle power diplomacy is active or passive is largely determined by an international structure that delimits the range of alternative policies. When a country is confined to a few number of policies without cooperation with great powers, it tends to pursue more active middle power diplomacy than a country with alternative options thanks to relationships with great powers. In such a case, domestic actors help decision-makers guide to fill substantive contents in diplomacy.
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