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노동증대 기술진보와 연령대별 인적자본 변화에 의한 인구변화의 지역경제성장 효과 분석

An Analysis of Effect of Population Change on Regional Economic Growth by Labor Augmented Technical Progress and Human Capital with Age Group Structure Change

박승규
한국지방자치학회 (Korean Association For Local Government Studies)|2019.09|한국지방자치학회보 (Journal of Local Government Studis)|제31권 제3호|pp. 119-148|DOI 10.21026/jlgs.2019.31.3.119

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키워드

regional economic growth지역경제성장인적자본demographic change인구변화노동증대 기술진보연령대별 인구구조labor augmented technical progresshuman capital by age group structure
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 연구는 통계청과 한국은행의 2003년~2016년 지역통계자료(소비자 및 생산자물가, 지역별 GRDP, 지역별 종사자수, 주민인구, 경제활동별 고정자본소모, 예금액, 연령대별 인구, 요소소득, 총고정자본형성)를 활용하여 인구 구성요인이 증감할 경우에 지역경제성장변화를 신고전학파의 성장론적 관점에서 지역을 광역시와 광역도로 구분하여 2004년부터 2016년까지 실증 분석하는 것을 연구의 목적으로한다. 분석결과, 기술진보를 배제한 전반적인 인구증감(시나리오 1-1)에 의해 자본 및 생산의 균형이 감소(증가, 시나리오 1-2)하였으나 수렴속도는 증가(감소, 시나리오 1-2)하였다. 더불어, 인구증감 외에노동증대 기술진보를 고려한 경우(시나리오 2)에는 자본과 생산균형은 보다 크게 감소하였으며, 광역도는 소비균형 역시 감소하였으나, 광역시와 광역도의 수렴속도는 보다 증가하였다. 따라서, 노동증대기술진보를 고려할 경우 광역시의 소비는 다소 증가하고 수렴 속도가 보다 증가하였다. 또한, 연령대별인적자본 증감을 고려한 경우(시나리오 3)에는 기술진보는 전반적으로 증가하며, 15-64세 생산인구, 65세 이상 인적자본 증가, 15세 이하 유소년 인적자본의 증가 순에 의해 기술진보 증가에 영향을 주는것으로 나타났다. 더불어, 광역시는 생산인구의 인적자본 증가를 제외하고 생산의 균형은 감소하였으며, 전체 연령대의 인적자본 증가로 소비의 균형이 증가하였다. 반면, 광역도는 이와는 반대되는 결과가 나타났다. 더불어, 인적자본의 감소로 광역시의 인적자본 및 투자의 균제상태가 증가한 반면 광역도는 이와는 다르게 감소하였다.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to empirically demonstrate the effects of change of population factors on the regional economic growth change of metropolitan cities and provinces from 2004 to 2016 in the perspective of neoclassical growth theory by using regional statistical data of the NSO and the BOK from 2003 to 2016. As a result, the steady-state of capital, production, and consumption decreased (increased in scenario 1-2) due to the overall population change (scenario 1-1), but the rate of convergence increased (decreased in scenario 1-2). In addition, when labor augmented technical progress was considered along with population growth (scenario 2), steady-state of capital and production decreased more and steady-state of consumption in provinces also decreased. On the other hand, the convergence rate of metropolitan cities and provinces increased more. Therefore, when the technical progress was considered, the consumption in the metropolitan cities was slightly increased and the convergence speed was increased. When it come to consider human capital by age group (scenario 3), generally technical progress was increased. Also, when the growth of technical progress was classified by age group, age groups affected the growth of technical progress by the production population of 15-64, human capital of the elderly, and human capital of youth. In addition, the steady-state of production decreased except for the increase in the human capital of the production population in metropolitan cities, and the increase in human capital of all age groups resulted in an increase of steady-state of consumption of metropolitan cities, but the results of provinces had the opposite effect. Moreover, the reduction of human capital has increased the steady-state of human capital and investment in metropolitan cities, while those of the provinces have decreased differently.

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