지역경제요인 변화로 인한 세대간 지역경제성장 분석
An Analysis of Changes in Regional Economic Factor on the Overlapping Generational Regional Economic Growth
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초록
본 연구는 통계청의 1992년~2017년 광업·제조업 사업체조사 및 경제총조사를 활용하여 지역의 경제성장을 구성하는 광업·제조업의 물적 및 인적자본, 총요소생산성 변화와 경기변동을 의미하는 물가 변화에 의한 지역경제성장 변화를 수도권 및 비수도권, 청년층 및 노년층의 생산, 소비, 효용 균제상태 변화로 도출하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 한다. 분석결과, 지역에 대한 산업 확충을 의미하는 물적자본의 확충(시나리오 1)은 지역의 소비, 생산, 효용의 균제상태를 감소시켰으며 오히려 수도권 및 비수도권의 지역간 임금격차를 증대시키는 역할을 하였다. 지역의 노동 확충을 의미하는 인적자본의 확충(시나리오 2)은 수도권은 소비의 균제상태 증가로 인한 생산의 균제상태 증가로 연계되었지만, 비수도권은 소비의 균제상태 감소에도 생산의 균제상태는 증가하였다. 더불어 수도권의 청년층 및 노년층의 효용의 균제상태가 증가한 반면 비수도권은 감소하였으며, 지역간 임금격차는 노동공급을 통해 완화되었다. 물적 및 인적자본 증가로 인한 총요소생산성의 증가(시나리오 3)는 소비의 균제상태 증가를 통해 생산의 균제상태 증가로 연계되었으며, 총요소생산성 증가로 인한 물적 및 인적자본 감소에도 효용은 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 끝으로, 경기변동에 대한 물가변화(시나리오 4)는 수도권과 비수도권의 세대간 효용의 균제상태를 모두 증가시키며, 수도권은 소비의 균제상태 증가로 인해 생산의 균제상태가 증가한 반면, 비수도권은 소비의 균제상태 변화에도 생산의 균제상태는 증가하지 못하는 것으로 나타남으로써 비수도권의 물가상승은 생산 성장을 위한 자본축적을 감소시키는 역할을 하는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
In order to derive changes in production, consumption, and utilities of young and old generations, and Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) and rest of areas (ROW) by applying physical and human capital, total factor productivity, and inflation as an indicative of economic fluctuations, this study utilized the statistics survey of mining and manufacturing industry from 1992 to 2017 of national statistics office. As a result, the expansion of physical capital (scenario 1), which meant the expansion of industry to the region did not increase the steady-state level of consumption, production, and utility in the region. This has been shown to play a role in increasing the wage gap. The expansion of human capital, which meant regional labor expansion (Scenario 2), led to an increase in the steady-state level of production in the SMA due to an increase in the steady-state level of consumption. In addition, the youth and the elderly have increased only in the SMA, and the wage gap between regions has also eased. The increase in total factor productivity due to the decrease in physical and human capital (Scenario 3) was linked to the increase in the steady-state level of production due to the increase in the steady-state level of consumption. Also, the increase in total factor productivity increased steady-state level of utility by decrease in steady-state level of physical and human capital. Finally, inflation changes in economic fluctuations (scenario 4) increased both steady-state levels of utility between generations in SMA and ROW. The steady-state level of production increased due to the increase in the steady-state level of consumption in SMA. However, the steady-state level of production did not increase even when the steady-state level of consumption is increased in ROW.
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