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고령화로 인한 공적의료소비지원이 지역경제성장에 미치는 영향 분석

The Regional Economic Growth Effect of Public Medical Consumption Assistance by Ageing

김의준|박승규
한국지방자치학회 (Korean Association For Local Government Studies)|2019.12|한국지방자치학회보 (Journal of Local Government Studis)|제31권 제4호|pp. 79-103|DOI 10.21026/jlgs.2019.31.4.79

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고령화ageing재정적자의료소비연금수입연금지출동태적패널연립방정식Medical consumptionpension revenuepension benefitnational health insurance deficitdynamic panel simultaneous equations
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 연구는 의료소비 증가로 인한 고령화 진전으로 연금지출이 연금수입을 초과하여 궁극적으로 건강보험 재정적자에 직면하는 정도를 2000년부터 2013년 수도권과 비수도권의 노령의존율, 지역내총생산, 투자, 저축, 노동, 소비, 연금수입 및 연금지출을 동태적패널연립방정식을 사용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 또한, 기존 7%의 의료소비 변화에 대한 추가적인 의료소비를 반영하여 의료소비 증가에 따른 영향을 지역별로 차별적으로 제시하였다. 분석결과, 수도권과 비수도권의 의료소비 증가로 인한 고령화 진전은 노령의존율을 증가시켰으며, 의료소비 증가에 따라 증가한 노동은 2025년 이후 감소세에 직면하였다. 반면, 고령화의 진전은 오히려 수도권과 비수도권의 저축을 증가시켰으나 수도권의 소비 증가에 비해 비수도권은 소비가 감소하여 상대적으로 성장이 작은 비수도권의 지역성장과는 연계되지 못하였다. 또한, 수도권과 달리 비수도권의 투자 증가에도 비수도권의 성장 정도는 감소하였다. 더불어, 고령화로인한 의료소비 증가로 연금지출이 연금수입을 초과함으로써 2025년 건강보험 재정적자에 직면하는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서, 의료소비만을 통한 의료재정지원은 노령의존율의 증가와 함께 지역의 성장을감소시키는 것으로 나타나 생산성 및 인구이동을 추가적으로 고려해야하는 필요성이 제기되었다.

Abstract

This study empirically analyzed the extent of increase in medical consumption on labor, consumption, pension revenue and pension benefit by dynamic panel simultaneous equations, which finally led to an ageing population and faced national health insurance deficit. In addition, the impacts of the increase in medical consumption of both Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) and rest of area (Non-SMA) were considered by reflecting the additional medical consumption of the existing 7% change in medical consumption. As a result, the aging progress caused by the increase of medical consumption in the SMA and Non-SMA increased the elderly dependency ratio. Also, labor was increased by 2025, but changed into having decreasing trend by increase of medical consumption. On the other hand, increasing fashion in ageing has increased the savings in both SMA and Non-SMA, but it has not been linked to regional growth in the Non-SMA, where consumption was less than that of SMA due to the decrease in consumption. In addition, unlike SMA, the growth of Non-SMA was decreased even though the investment in the Non-SMA increased. Ageing population were expected to face a national health insurance deficit in 2025, because pension benefit exceeded pension revenue. Therefore, if labor force was not secured through productivity and population migration, medical financial support through medical consumption affected to decrease the growth of the both SMA and Non-SMA along with the increase of elderly dependency ratio, which rose the need of productivity and population migration.

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