노령 인구 증가에 따른 국세 및 지방비 추계에 관한 연구: 노인 관련 정책사업을 중심으로

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the potential costs that the central and local governments would have to bear if elderly welfare programs continue in the context of population aging. Population projections from 2020 to 2050 provided by the Statistics Korea were used to estimate the total expenditures. The analysis focused on government subsidies and local projects specifically related to the elderly. The results reveal that the cumulative financial burden on local governments for state subsidies until 2050 is estimated at approximately 260 trillion won, while the cumulative burden for local government-driven projects during the same period is projected to be 103.6 trillion won. Such financial burdens could undermine the sustainability of local governments and hinder their ability to fund their own urgent projects. Consequently, it is proposed that non-region-specific projects be funded by the central government, while regionally relevant welfare programs should be funded by local governments. Additionally, proactive establishment and accumulation of funds are recommended to prepare for areas that may struggle to cope with the increasing elderly population. This research is expected to contribute to the efficient allocation and financial soundness of national finances, while also fostering in-depth discussions on the necessity of establishing funds to prepare for potential challenges in elderly welfare finances due to an aging population.