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포스트 코로나 시대의 국제질서

The International Order After COVID-19

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초록

코로나19 사태가 단기간에 끝나면 글로벌 공급체인의 붕괴, 저성장・고실업의 문제를 해결하기 위해 보호무역주의가 등장하고, 미중 간의 전략적 경쟁이 ‘신냉전’으로 격화될 수 있다는 가능성을 보여주고 있다. 코로나 사태가 장기화되면 경제공황으로 경제 민족주의가 등장하고, 국제질서는 다극체제로 발전할 가능성이 있다. 국제 분쟁이 격화되고, 국가의 생존을 위해 자강(self-reliance)이 강화되며, ‘저비용 고효율’의 안보를 확보하기 위해 대량살상무기(WMD)가 매력적인 수단으로 등장할 가능성도 있다.

Abstract

This study is to explore the Post-COVID-19 international order through caused process. The findings of this study are followed. The COVID-19 outbreak ended in a short period of time brought in the protectionism due to the collapse of the GSC, low growth, and high unemployment. The rise of China may accelerate power transition between US and China, which could intensify the US-China relations from strategic rivalry to 'New Cold War'. If the COVID-19 prolongs more than 4 years, the world will suffer from the great depression. Under the great depression "economic nationalism" is likely to replace globalization, and international trade will be done on strict reciprocity. In international politics, The U.S. and China can voluntarily reduce their global roles, which transform G2 into a multipolarity. Moreover, the weakness of global governance and the absence of a world police state could lead to an rule-less anarchy. International disputes are intensified, self-reliance is strengthened, and states seeking low-cost and high efficiency security means will be tempted by WMD. The relationship between the US and China is likely to develop into uneasy, fluid coexistence.

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