COVID-19 팬데믹과 미중 패권경쟁
U.S.-China Hegemonic Competition after the COVID-19 Pandemic
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초록
이 논문의 목적은 미국과 중국의 전략적 경쟁을 중심으로 COVID-19 팬데믹의 국제정치적 함의를 분석하는 것이다. 특히 미중 패권경쟁이라는 구조적·거시적 변동이 COVID-19 팬데믹으로부터 어떤 영향을 받았는지, 또 향후 사태의 전개에 있어서 고려해야 할 핵심 변수는 무엇인지를 검출하고자 했다. 팬데믹의 국제정치적 영향으로 지적된 리더십의 상실, 세계화와 자유주의 질서의 위기는 모두 미중관계의 악화와 밀접한 연관을 갖는다. 팬데믹의 책임 논쟁에서 불거진 양국의 대립은 무역·기술 전쟁, 통화·금융 전쟁의 경제적 갈등의 심화로 이어졌다. 또 군사·안보적 갈등이 첨예화되고, 체제 경쟁의 양상마저 나타나면서 미중관계를 “신냉전”으로 규정하는 논의도 등장했다. 팬데믹은 이러한 문제의 직접적인 원인은 아니지만, 미국과 중국의 잠재적 갈등을 악화시키고 패권경쟁을 촉진하는 데 중요한 역할을 했다. 도전국 중국에 대한 미국의 전략, 이에 대한 중국의 대응에 따라서 COVID-19가 야기한 G-minus-2의 상황이 지속되거나 더 악화될 가능성도 없지 않다.
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to examine the international political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In a macro-structural perspective, this study particularly focuses on the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. Most of the academic discourses on international political impacts of the pandemic refer to three crises: the crisis of leadership, globalization and liberal international order. The ‘blame game’ over the COVID-19 pandemic intensified economic conflict between the U.S. and China which is includes trade, technological, monetary and financial issues. Moreover, as military relations escalated between the two great powers, some commentators defined U.S.-China conflict as “new cold war.” The pandemic is not the immediate cause of these changes, however, it exacerbated the potential conflict and accelerated the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China. The future of the hegemonic transition and the global order would be determined by U.S. srtrategy toward China and China’s response. The future is uncertain, but odds are that the instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lasts for quite a long time and deteriorate into acute hegemonic competition.
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