네오 칼레츠키언 모형의 장기 동학과 초승수 효과
Long-run dynamics in a neo-Kaleckian model with super-multiplier mechanism
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초록
본 연구는 독립지출의 외생적 증가가 낳는 초승수 효과와 해로드 투자 조정을 표준적인 네오 칼레츠키언 모형에 반영하고 모형의 장기 동학을 분석한 결과이다. 모형 경제는 인플레이션에 대한 경합청구권 이론과 칼도-버둔의 법칙을 구성 요소로 포함함으로써 관련 선행 연구에서와는 달리 자본-노동 간 소득 분배가 기술 진보와 함께 내생화된 특징을 가지고 있다. 모형의동학은 이들 다양한 요소들 간의 상호 작용의 결과물로서, 본 연구에서는 파라미터 값의 변화 이후 기존의 장기 균형으로부터 새로운 장기 균형으로 모형 경제가 수렴해 가는 과정의 이행 동학을 수치적으로 계산하였다. 분석 결과는 모형 경제가 정상 가동률 수준으로 수렴하면서도 저축의 역설, 수요 체제와 성장 체제의 임금 주도 특성과 같은 케인지언 경제학의 핵심 명제들이장기에서도 성립할 수 있음을 보여준다.
Abstract
This paper incorporates the effects of the autonomous growth of a demand component into an otherwise canonical neo-Kaleckian model with conflicting claims. The long-run dynamics of the model are generated from the combined effects of the super-multiplier due to exogenous increases in capitalists’ consumption, endogenous changes in the distribution of income, endogenous technical progress, exogenous population growth and the Harrodian investment adjustments. The model features the long-run convergence towards the normal rate of utilization of capacity and the stable rate of employment. The numerical computations based on calibrated parameters verify that the Keynesian hypothesis of the paradox of thrifts and the wage-led growth hold even in the long run under fairly weak conditions. The effects of a permanent decrease in the growth rate of population are also discussed.
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