논문KCI 등재
포스트 케인지언 거시동학모형: 스라피언 초승수 모형의 수정
A Simple Post-Keynesian Model of Macrodynamics: A Modified Version of Sraffian Supermultiplier Model
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
주제분류경제학
초록
해로드(R. F. Harrod)는 케인즈 단기균형이 성장경로 상에서 불안정하며, 이는 거시경제의 내재적 속성을 안정적인 장기균형이 아니라 경기변동으로 이해할 수 있는 단서가 된다고 주장하였다. 해로드 불안정성에 대한 최근 논의는 스라피언 초승수모형을 중심으로 진행되어 왔다. 스라피언 초승수모형의 주창자들은 포스트 케인지언 성장분배모형의 장기균형이 일반적으로 정상 설비가동률을 실현하지 못한다는 점에서 한계를 보인다고 비판하고, 케인즈 균형이 정상 설비가동률로 수렴하는 초승수모형을 그 대안으로 제시하였다. 그러나 본 연구는 스라피언 초승수모형이 거시경제의 내재적 속성을 경기변동으로 이해하는데 장애가 된다고 평가하며, 스라피언 초승수모형을 수정한 포스트 케인지언 거시동학모형을 구축하고 장기균형의 불안정성을 논한다. 그리고 이러한 불안정성은 중앙은행의 통화정책에 의해서 완화될 수 있다고 주장한다.
Abstract
Harrod argued that the Keynesian equilibrium would be unstable on the growth path, and suggested that the long run nature of the macroeconomy would be better characterized by cycles rather than a stable resting point. Recently, proponents of Sraffian supermultiplier model argued that the Keynesisn equilibrium would converge to the long run equilibrium of normal capacity utilization, and that Sraffian supermultiplier model would be an alternative to Post Keynesian model of growth and distribution in which normal capacity utilization would not be realized at a stable long run equilibrium. However, we believe that Sraffian supermultiplier model makes it hard to think the long run nature of the macroeconomy as cycles. This paper presents a simple post Keynesian model of macrodynamics. It discusses Harrodian instability of the long run equilibrium, and argues that inflation targeting monetary policy would tame the instability.
참고문헌 (40)
- 연제호, "정부지출과 정부부채 : 스라피안 초승수 접근법을 도입한 네오 칼레츠키안 성장 모형을 활용한 분석", 경제발전연구, 26(1), pp.27~63 (2020), 한국경제발전학회
- 연제호, "이윤주도성장에 대한 재고찰: 생산능력을 창출하지 않는 독립지출을 중심으로", 사회경제평론, 34(1), pp.87~125 (2021), 한국사회경제학회
- Allain, O., "Tackling the instability of growth: a Kaleckian-Harrodian model with an autonomous expenditure component", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(5), pp.1351~1371 (2015)
- Allain, O., "A supermultiplier model with two non-capacitygenerating semi-autonomous demand components", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 63, pp.91~103 (2022)
- Household credit-financed consumption and the debt service ratio: tackling endogenous autonomous demand in the Supermultiplier model, "Avritzer, J. D.", ~, pp.No. PKWP2219 (2022)
- Brochier, L., "Debt and demand regimes in simplified growth models: a comparison of neo-Kaleckian and Supermultiplier models", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 47(6), pp.1107~1138 (2023)
- Brochier, L., "A supermultiplier Stock-Flow Consistent model: the “return” of the paradoxes of thrift and costs in the long run?", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 43(2), pp.413~442 (2019)
- Bruno, O., "The instability principle revisited: an essay in Harrodian dynamics", The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 21(3), pp.467~484 (2014)
- Cesaratto, S., "The relation between Keynesian monetary theory and demand-led growth: a Sraffian exploration", Review of Keynesian Economics, 10(3), pp.291~315 (2022)
- Duménil, G., "Being Keynesian in the short term and classical in the long term: The traverse to classical long‐term equilibrium", The Manchester School, 67(6), pp.684~716 (1999)
- Fazzari, S. M., "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 44(3), pp.583~605 (2020)
- Fiebiger, B., "Semi-autonomous household expenditures as the causa causans of postwar US business cycles: the stability and instability of Luxemburg-type external markets", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 42(1), pp.155~175 (2018)
- Fiebiger, B., "Trend and business cycles with external markets: Non-capacity generating semi‐autonomous expenditures and effective demand", Metroeconomica, 70(2), pp.247~262 (2019)
- Franke, R., "Can monetary policy tame Harrodian instability?", Metroeconomica, 69(3), pp.593~618 (2018)
- Freitas, F., "A baseline supermultiplier model for the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt", Review of Keynesian Economics, 8(3), pp.313~338 (2020)
- Freitas, F., "Growth rate and level effects, the stability of the adjustment of capacity to demand and the Sraffian supermultiplier", Review of Political Economy, 27(3), pp.258~281 (2015)
- Gandolfo, G., "Economic dynamics: study edition" (2010), Springer Verlag
- Harrod, R. F., "An essay in dynamic theory", The economic journal, 49(193), pp.14~33 (1939)
- Hein, E., "Autonomous government expenditure growth, deficits, debt, and distribution in a neo-Kaleckian growth model", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 41(2), pp.316~338 (2018)
- Hein, E., "Stability issues in Kaleckian models driven by autonomous demand growth—Harrodian instability and debt dynamics", Metroeconomica, 72(2), pp.388~404 (2021)
- Lavoie, M., "Convergence Towards the Normal Rate of Capacity Utilization in Neo-Kaleckian Models: The Role of Non‐Capacity Creating Autonomous Expenditures", Metroeconomica, 67(1), pp.172~201 (2016)
- Mandarino, G., "Workers’ debt-financed consumption: a supermultiplier stock–flow consistent model", Review of Keynesian Economics, 8(3), pp.339~364 (2020)
- Morlin, G. S., "Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 62, pp.586~598 (2022)
- Nikiforos, M., "Residential and Nonresidential Investment and the Cycle: A Rejoinder", Review of Political Economy, pp.1~5 (2023)[DOI]
- Pariboni, R., "Household consumer debt, endogenous money and growth: A supermultiplier-based analysis", PSL Quarterly Review, 69(278), pp.211~233 (2016)
- Pedrosa, Í., "Debt hierarchy: autonomous demand composition, growth and indebtedness in a supermultiplier model", Economic Modelling, 126 (2023)
- Rogé, C., "Harrodian instability in a post‐Keynesian growth and distribution model", Metroeconomica, 71(1), pp.88~128 (2020)
- Santetti, M., "Growth, cycles, and residential investment", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, pp.313~327 (2024)
- Serrano, F., "Long period effective demand and the Sraffian supermultiplier", Contributions to Political Economy, 14(1), pp.67~90 (1995)
- Serrano, F., "The Sraffian supermultiplier as an alternative closure for heterodox growth theory", European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, 14(1), pp.70~91 (2017)
- Serrano, F., "The Trouble with Harrod: the fundamental instability of the warranted rate in the light of the Sraffian Supermultiplier", Metroeconomica, 70(2), pp.263~287 (2019)
- Autonomous demand-led growth and the supermultiplier: the theory, the model and some clarification, "Serrano, F.", Instituto de Economia, ~, pp.Instituto de Economia UFRJ Working Paper, No. 3 (2023)
- Setterfield, M., "Central Banking in the Modern World", pp.35~56 (2004), Edward Elgar Publishing
- Skott, P., "Autonomous demand and the Harrodian criticisms of the Kaleckian model", Metroeconomica, 68(1), pp.185~193 (2017)
- Skott, P., "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side", Metroeconomica, 70(2), pp.233~246 (2019)
- Skott, P., "Macroeconomic implications of financialisation", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(6), pp.827~862 (2008)
- Skott, P., "Supermultipliers, ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ and functional finance", Metroeconomica, 73(1), pp.220~244 (2022)
- Summa, R., "Cycles: empirics and the supermultiplier theory", Review of Political Economy (2023)[DOI]
- Teixeira, L., "Long-run effective demand and residential investment: a Sraffian supermultiplier based analysis", Review of Keynesian Economics, 11(1), pp.72~99 (2023)
- Trezzini, A., "Harrodian instability: An unhelpful analytical concept", Review of Radical Political Economics, 53(2), pp.320~336 (2021)