산업구조 차이에 따른 지역 간 불균등 발전 모형 : 스톡-플로 일관체계(SFC) 분석
Uneven Economic Development between Two Regions in a Stock-flow Consistent Framework
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이 논문은 스톡-플로 일관체계(Stock-Flow Consistent framework; SFC) 접근법에 기초하여 지역 간 산업구조의 차이를 반영한 2지역 성장모형을 수립하고 외부충격이 성장경로와 소득격차에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 모형의 시뮬레이션 결과, 소비성향의 상승은 경제성장에 대한 긍정적 영향에도 불구하고 지역 간 소득격차를 확대시킨다. 이윤 몫의 상승도 지역 간 격차를 확대시키는 결과를 초래하는 반면, 지방정부의 재정지출 증가는 지역 간 격차의 축소에 기여하는 것으로 나타난다. 이 연구는 지역 간 균형발전을 위해서는 저발전 지역이 타지역 중간투입물에 대한 의존도를 낮추는 방향으로 산업정책을 추진해야 함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes a Neo-Kaleckian regional growth model with different industrial structures of two regions, in which only a developed region produces basic goods and a less-developed region must import those to yield its products, on the basis of a stock-flow consistent framework. We obtain following results of the simulation. Firstly, an increase in the propensity to consume generates higher growth rates, but a income gap between two regions is widened over time because of different growth paths. Secondly, a rise of the profit share also results the widened income gap due to the increase in the price of investment goods. Thirdly, encouraging direct investment from a developed region induces higher growth rates, but the income gap is augmented because of the outflow of net profits. Finally, the expansionary fiscal policy of a local government could stimulate its economy as well as achieve fiscal soundness. To sum up, our results suggest that a less-developed region needs to lower its heavy reliance on intermediary goods produced in other regions for balanced development.
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