한국 도로자본의 최적수준과 사회적 기여
Social Contribution and Optimal Level of Road Capital in South Korea
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정책 결정자들에게 더 좋은 정보를 제공하기 위해서는 도로 투자가 국가 경제성장과 경쟁력의 영향을 연구를 통해 분석하여야 하며, 특정 산업과 도로 투자 비용과 편익의 관계를 파악하기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 집합분석의 결과를 이용한 도로자본의 분석 결과는 아직 최적수준에서 부족한 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문의 연구 결과를 통해 검토해 보면 우리나라의 1970년대에는 도로자본이 매우 부족한 것으로 나타났으며, 1970년대 후반으로 갈수록 비율은 급격하게 감소하였지만, 분석기간 동안 도로자본의 투자는 부족한 것으로 나타났다. 도로자본의 총요소 생산성 성장률의 공헌도는 총산업에서 양(+)으로 나타났으며, 산업에서 총요소 생산성에 공헌 정도는 비체화적 기술변화, 외생 수요, 그리고 도로자본 효과 순으로 나타났다. 또한, 도로자본의 총요소생산성의 공헌도는 분석기간에서 0.13으로 기존연구에 비해 비교적 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 도시 내 통행, 근거리 및 지역 간 수송을 담당하는 도로는 지속적인 투자가 필요한 것은 자명한 사실이며, 향후 우리나라 경제의 악영향을 최소화하기 위해서는 보다 계획적이고 지속적인 도로 투자가 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
In order to better inform decision-makers, more work should be done. More work should be done to analyze how Road investments and the provinces impact national economic growth and competitiveness. More work should also be conducted to understand the costs and benefits of Road investments and their industry specific impacts across national. Using a set of “aggregated” estimates, we calculated the “optimum” level of road capital and compared it with its actual level over the period 1970~2007. This results emerges is that the ratio of the optimum to actual road capital, measured by road, was high at beginning of the period 1970s and declined 2000s. There appears to be evidence of under-investment in road capital. That is continuous and premeditated investment for road which lead to saving time and finance. Contribution of the road capital of total factor productivity growth was positive (+) in the total industrial. The degree of contribution to total factor productivity growth in the total industry was disembodied technical change, an exogenous demand effect, road capital effect. In addition, Road capital contribution in about 0.13 which compared with reported estimates in the literature is relatively small.
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