부동산개발 예측모형의 적용방안 연구: 서울시 강북지역을 사례로
Application of Prediction Models for Real Estate Development in North Seoul, Korea
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초록
본 연구는 서울시 강북 14개 구 지역의 부동산개발 예측모형을 구상하고 실제 데이터에 적용하였다. 이를 위해 우선 기존 문헌을 검토하고 2001년과 2007년 관련 자료를 얻은 후, 다항로짓모형을 적용하여 설정한 부동산 개발 유형별 변화에 사회경제적 특성, 토지가격과 규제, 교통 및 입지 특성, 그리고 토지이용 복합도가 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는지 분석하였다. 그 다음 각 부동산 개발 유형별 확률을 계산하고 이에 대한 논의를 하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 나지개발의 경우 2001년과 2007년 사이 고용밀도의 변화, 교통시설과 교통망 등이 개발을 촉발하는 요인이었다. 둘째, 기존 토지개발의 경우, 대체로 단독주택이 고용밀도의 변화, 교통시설에 대한 근접성 등으로 인해 단위당 지가가 높은 아파트, 상업용 토지, 주상용 토지로 개발되고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 셋째, 다항로짓모형에서 나온 부동산개발 예측결과는 기존 토지개발모형보다 나지개발모형의 경우 비교적 뚜렷하고 기존의 도시개발 패턴에 부합하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 접근법은 풍부한 데이터에 좀 더 발전된 분석방법을 적용하여 정교한 모형을 구축한다면 부동산개발 예측뿐만 아니라 향후 도시성장, 기후변화, 에너지와 물소비 모형에 응용할 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
This paper aims to apply the prediction models for real estate development in North Seoul from 2001 to 2007. After reviewing related literature and gaining related data in 2001 and 2007, the multinomial logit models for this analysis identifies the effects of socioeconomic attributes, land price and land use regulation, transportation and locational attributes, and land use mix on the change of real estate development in North Seoul. This study also reveals the probability of each real estate development from the multinomial logit models and discusses the results. This study confirms that the rise of employment density, land price, and transportation facilities encourage the development of raw lands. Further, single family housing near transportation network tends to be converted to condominium, commercial and retails, and mixed-use due to the increase of employment density and proximity to transportation facilities. Finally, the prediction models in this study would be applied to forecast urban growth, climate change, and energy and water consumption in Korea.
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