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도시성장모형을 활용한 택지수요의 추정

Estimating Residential Land Demand via Urban Growth Model-The Case of Greater Daegu Area

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초록

This study introduces new method to estimate residential land demand. Differ from the conventional population-based approach, this study utilizes urban growth prediction model. In order to prove the validity of this model, Daegu metropolitan area was select as study area and drivers of land use conversion were estimated by binary logit model. Based on the coefficients derived from the probability model, the location and size of residential development were identified under various development patterns, such as infill development versus dispersed development reflected by growth ratios. The results imply that there exists development spill-overs in the study area. Even though there are some limitations of the model, the new method is worth considering as the substitute or complement approach for the Local Housing Plan.

Abstract

This study introduces new method to estimate residential land demand. Differ from the conventional population-based approach, this study utilizes urban growth prediction model. In order to prove the validity of this model, Daegu metropolitan area was select as study area and drivers of land use conversion were estimated by binary logit model. Based on the coefficients derived from the probability model, the location and size of residential development were identified under various development patterns, such as infill development versus dispersed development reflected by growth ratios. The results imply that there exists development spill-overs in the study area. Even though there are some limitations of the model, the new method is worth considering as the substitute or complement approach for the Local Housing Plan.

참고문헌 (44)

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