중국의 대만통일 전략과 한국의 해양안보 - 일국양제를 위한 회색지대 전략과 삼전(三戰) -

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to reveal that the One Country, Two Systems is being implemented through the gray zone strategy and the Three Warfares, which are the core concepts of China’s unification policy. Through this paper, the researcher examined how China has applied the gray zone strategy and the Three Warfares for the One Country, Two Systems, which is a unification strategy for Taiwan, and derived the implications for maritime security for Korea, and proposed a direction for the Korean military to prepare. In this paper, the researcher used the framework of analysis based on the three elements of strategy (goals, methods, means) proposed by Lykke. It can be seen that China’s various forms of force demonstration around Taiwan is a clear practice of the gray zone strategy. Examples of the gray zone strategy include firing missiles into the waters around Taiwan, implementing a maritime blockade strategy that surrounds Taiwan Island, and actions such as Chinese fighter jets violating the median line between Taiwan and China or entering the southwestern airspace of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. As an example of China’s application of the Three Warfares to Taiwan, the implementation of the Anti-Secession National Law can be cited as a legal warfare, the act of inducing Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation can be cited as a psychological warfare, and the policy of emphasizing that China and Taiwan are one in terms of ethnicity and culture by putting forward the slogan ‘Both sides of the strait are one family’ can be cited as a public opinion warfare. China is expected to continue to push for its Taiwan unification policy without ever giving up. In addition, the conflict between the U.S. and China over the cross-strait issue will continue. Ultimately, despite the fact that it is becoming clear that socialist and capitalist systems cannot coexist within one country, China has been pushing for this recklessly. And its side effects have led to the current Taiwan situation. The moment China realizes that One Country, Two Systems is no longer possible, it will try to forcibly merge Taiwan using force. This is the essence of the One Country, Two Systems that China is pushing for. Therefore, all non-military provocations and low-intensity military provocations carried out by China in the waters around the Korean Peninsula are likely to lead to military conflict over a long period of time. Several implications for maritime security can be derived from China’s One Country, Two Systems unification strategy. First, China has established the goal of a unified China and has been willing to endure long-term strategic patience to achieve it. Second, China will use the gray zone strategy and the Three Warfares as the main methods when important issues related to national interests occur in the waters around the Korean Peninsula. Third, there is a possibility of China’s military invasion of Taiwan, and the impact on the Indo-Pacific area during the invasion will be very large. The direction of response that the Korean military should pursue in terms of maritime security is as follows. First, the Korean military should strengthen monitoring to accurately analyze and derive the goals of China’s activities in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula and understand its essence, and should pursue strategic patience in promoting long-term power enhancement projects. Second, in response to the gray zone strategy and the Three Warfares carried out by China in the East China Sea, including the West Sea and Ieodo, the Korean military should respond proactively and aggressively as soon as it recognizes it. Third, various military response measures should be prepared for the impact on the Korean Peninsula in the event of China’s military invasion of Taiwan, which rejects the One Country, Two Systems.