핵연구 관점에서 본 북핵과 비핵화
North Korean Nuclear Weapons and Denuclearization
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본 논문은 북핵을 핵이라는 보편적 연구 대상으로 삼아야 한다는 문제의식에서 출발한다. 본 논문은 핵연구의 세 부문, 즉 핵비확산, 핵통제·폐기, 핵억제의 맥락에서 북핵및 비핵화를 분석하고, 각 부문에서의 문제점과 가능성을 분석한다. 첫째, 비핵화는 북한의 NPT체제로의 복귀이다. 북한 핵무장 동기(수요측면)는 대외적 생존뿐만 아니라 정권정당성과도 밀접하게 관련되어 있으며, 북한에의 기술이전(공급측면)은 강대국간 견제, 밸런싱의 국제정치 속에서 발생하였다. 핵확산과정에서의 복합성은 북핵 해결의 장애로작용하는 것이 사실이다. 둘째, 우리가 가장 흔히 말하는 비핵화는 핵능력의 폐기를 의미하는바, 현재는 포괄적 비핵화의 틀 안에서 신뢰할만한 폐기 및 검증에 이르는 것이 유일한 방도인 것으로 보인다. 즉, 미북 사이 타협점이 가능한 부분이 있다면, 미국이 신고의 완전성 부분에서 일부 양보하는 대신 폐기에 참여하고 검증을 확보하는 것이다. 셋째, 비핵화는 결단과 의지와 관련되는 것으로 핵억제의 종식이다. 북핵의 궁극적 해결은 물리적 핵능력의 폐기만이 아니라 김정은 스스로 핵억제를 포기해야 하지만 이런 의지를표명한 적이 없다. 그러나 북한은 미국 및 국제사회에 대하여 위험감수의 강제핵위협을행하기는 힘들 것이며 이를 인지하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이상의 분석은 두 가지 정도의 새로운 연구 주제를 제기한다. 하나는 북핵 확산과정의 공급측면과 관련한 국제정치적 역학에 관한 문제이고, 다른 하나는 남북관계에서 북한의 강제핵위협의 사용 여부에관한 문제이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to critically analyze the North Korean nuclear issue, and denuclearization as the solution to it, from the perspective of the nuclear weapons study in general. The existing literature in Korea has not made sustained efforts to comprehend theoretical implications of the three fields of the nuclear weapons study: nuclear non-proliferation, nuclear arms control and dismantlement, and nuclear deterrence. Based on the three, this paper conceives the North Korean nuclear issue and defines denuclearization, thus explicating opportunities and challenges. First, denuclearization means North Korea’s return to the NPT regime. In the demand side, North Korea’s motivation of nuclear armament was to ensure state security and security of the regime centered around Kim Jong-un, whereas in the supply side, Pyongyang’s nuclear path was facilitated by the introduction of the sensitive technology, particularly uranium enrichment, through A. Q. Khan’s nuclear black market networks. Such complexity of proliferation in North Korea is an obstacle to denuclearization. Second, the most commonly mentioned aspect of denuclearization is nuclear dismantlement. After the breakdown of the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in 2019, a likely solution is a combination of U.S. comprehensive packaged agreement and North Korea’s step-by-step approach. Third, denuclearization is closely related to the will to give up nuclear deterrence, an intention-related process that differs from the dismantlement involving elimination of material capability. Kim Jong-un has never expressed or hinted such intention. As the coercive diplomacy studies show, however, North Korea is not likely to elevate nuclear threat through brinkmanship because this will simply toughen international sanctions. All in all, North Korea is far from the above-mentioned definition of denuclearization. The analysis in this paper raises two related questions for the future research: one is about the power politics surrounding the supply-side of nuclear proliferation in North Korea, and the other is about likelihood and patterns of North Korea’s use of coercive nuclear threat to South Korea, if not to the United States.
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