동남아 체제전환국가에서의 공적개발원조(ODA)와 경제성장: 예비적(preliminary) 검토와 북한에의 시사점
ODA and Economic Growth in transition economies of Northeast Asia: Preliminary reviews and implications to North Korea
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본 논문은 동남아 체제전환국가에서의 공적개발원조(ODA)와 경제성장 간의 관계를 검토하여 북한에의 시사점을 도출하는 것에 목적을 두고 연구되었다. 연구결과에 따르면, 베트남, 미얀마, 캄보디아, 그리고 라오스 모두 ODA 유입규모의 변화 추세와 GDP 성장률 추세간의 일정 부분의 상관성이 관찰되었다. 현재 북한의 해외재원조달은 국제사회의 제재 및 폐쇄적인 경제구조 하에서 이루어지고 있음을 감안해본다면, 북한이 본격적으로 개혁․개방을 추진할 경우 그 규모는 크게 증가할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 더불어 재원의 성격도 긴급구호 혹은 인도적 지원 등이 아닌 경제분야에 대한 대규모 지원이 될 수 있다. 특히 북한의 경우 공적개발원조(ODA)를 지속적으로 공여 받아왔었기 때문에 관련 경험이 거의 없었던 기존 체제전환국과 비교해 더욱 적극적으로 대규모의 공적개발원조를 공여 받을 수 있을 것이며, 이러한 재원은 체제전환 시 경제성장에 주요한 초기 재원으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
This paper explores ODA effects on economic growth in transition economies of Northeast Asia, and suggests implications to North Korea. As a result of our study, when a state change its economic system properly from a planned to a market, there would be much ODA from the international society. And it might support states’ economic growth under the transition process. In terms of this view, North Korea could expect much ODA after changing and opening its system properly under the international frame. Expecially, North Korea which has been one of major recipients for more than 20years, they could handle ODA properly for long experience, and of course it would bring positive effects to North Korean economic growth.
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