금융세계화 확산 메커니즘에 관한 실증분석
An Empirical Analysis of the Propagation Mechanism of Financial Globalization
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본고는 금융세계화의 메커니즘과 이를 작동시키는 데 필요한 전제조건을 금융발전론적 시각에서 조명한 후 OECD 16개 회원국의 1988～2001년중 금융세계화 및 금융발전 자료를 이용하여 Arellano and Bond(1991)의 동태적 패널분석기법을 통해 금융세계화의 확산 메커니즘에 대해 실증 분석하였다. 금융세계화의 확산 배경에는 기관투자가의 초기 자산이 일정 수준을 넘어서는 ‘규모조건’과 축적된 자본을 효율적으로 운용할 수 있도록 시스템이 갖추어져야 하는 ‘제도조건’이 중요한 역할을 한다. 이같은 논점을 앵글로색슨국가와 유럽대륙형국가로 나누어 실증분석해 본 결과 양 표본집단 모두에서 금융세계화에 관한 ‘규모조건 가설’이 대체로 지지되는 것으로 나타났다. 다만 ‘제도조건 가설’은 금융시스템이 시장중심으로 발전한 앵글로색슨국가와 은행중심으로 발전한 유럽대륙형국가 사이에 다소 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 은행중심의 금융시스템에 속해 있는 우리나라가 금융세계화의 이점을 적극 활용해 나가기 위해서는 자본시장의 선진화를 통해 효율적인 자금운용과 리스크관리를 도모해나가는 동시에 연기금 및 채권시장 등의 확충을 통해 양적인 면에서의 금융입지매력도 높여나가는 것이 중요하다고 본다.
Abstract
This paper examines the mechanism of financial globalization and the preconditions needed for operating it, from the aspect of financial development. Using data on financial globalization and financial development during the period of 1988 to 2001, from 16 OECD countries, this paper also conducts an empirical analysis of the mechanism behind propagation of financial globalization, employing a dynamic panel data analysis presented by Arellano and Bond (1991). It argues that two preconditions play a significant role in accelerating financial globalization: a ‘scale condition,’ meaning that the initial assets of institutional investors need to exceed a certain level, and an ‘institutional condition,’ meaning that the economy should be equipped with a system in which the accumulated capital can be operated efficiently. When we conduct empirical analysis by dividing the 16 OECD countries into two groups - Anglo-Saxon countries and European continental countries - the results demonstrate that the ‘scale condition’ is in general supported in terms of financial globalization in both sample groups. The ‘institutional condition’, however, shows a little difference between the Anglo-Saxon countries with their market-based financial systems and the continental European countries with their bank-based ones. In order to utilize the advantages of financial globalization positively, it is concluded that Korea, with its bank-based financial system, should devise a scheme to achieve more efficient fund operation and risk management by development of its capital market. At the same time, to make Korea an attractive financial hub in quantitative terms, boosting of the sophistication of its capital markets, such as its pension fund and bond markets, is seen to be important.
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