민간연금의 자본시장 발전효과 분석:메커니즘과 전제조건을 중심으로
The Impact of Pension Funds on Capital Markets: The Mechanism and Conditions
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본고는 민간연금의 자본시장 발전 효과가 실현되는 메커니즘과 전제조건에 대해 고찰하였다. 전자에 관해서는 민간연금의 발전이 경제내 위험사업에 대한 투자(risk-taking)를 증가시킴으로써 위험사업에 수반되는 외부효과를 내부화하여 자본시장과 실물경제가 함께 발전토록 한다는 ‘외부효과 가설’을 제시하였다. 그리고 후자에 관해서는 민간연금 산업에 관한 ‘규모조건’과 기금운용여건과 관련한 ‘제도조건’을 제시하였다. 실증분석에서는 주식시장 발전모형의 추정을 통해 ‘외부효과 가설’이 앵글로색슨국가에서는 성립하나 유럽대륙․일본에서는 성립하지 않는다는 결과를 얻었다. 아울러 이는 민간연금의 기금운용과 관련한 ‘제도조건’과 ‘규모조건’이 앵글로색슨국가에서는 성립하나 유럽대륙․일본에서는 잘 성립하지 않는데 주로 기인한다는 해석을 도출하였다. 이와 같은 분석결과는 연금 및 금융제도의 개혁을 통해 연금산업에 금융시장규율을 확립하고 경제규모대비 일정수준 이상의 기금을 축적할 경우 국내자본시장 발전효과가 나타날 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the mechanism and conditions whereby pension funds contribute to the development of capital markets. For the first of these, it has been argued that the accumulation of pension funds in a competitive pension fund industry promotes the co-evolution of the domestic capital market and real sector by facilitating investments in risky assets and economy-of-scale projects, thus internalizing their pecuniary external effects. As for the latter it has been argued that fulfillment of a 'scale condition' for the pension fund industry as a whole relative to the economy and an 'institutional precondition' regarding pension fund investment will suffice for such an effect to hold. Results from empirical analyses confirm the 'externality hypothesis' for the group of Anglo-Saxon countries, but not for the group of Continental European countries and Japan. It has been argued that the difference between the two regimes stems from the differences in the degrees to which the two preconditions are fulfilled. These results support the argument that achieving a critical mass of pension funds and securing the working of the market mechanism in the pension fund industry represent a (necessary and) sufficient condition for pension reform to succeed as well as to contribute to the development of domestic capital markets.
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