내생적 성장모형을 이용한 남·북한 경제통합 성장 경로 분석

Abstract

This paper studies dynamic effects on the balanced growth and transitional paths on the reunited Korea under the circumstances when human capital has a positive externality. Under this circumstance, the underdeveloped North Korea can enjoy the positive externality benefits from the relatively more advanced South, which accelerate the growth of the North and, eventually, converge to a new balanced growth path. Therefore, both Koreas will deviate from the old growth path and enter into new transitional paths on which the two Koreas will walk on a different path for some time until two economies converge to a common growth path. The model employed in this paper is based on the two strands in the literature: the growth effect of human capital externality advocated by Lucas(1993) and Tamura(1996) is the one and endogenous growth model of a two-country and two-industry based on Funke and Strulik(2005) is the other. In this paper, we also compare the transitional path and duration of the vertical economic integration implied by our model with that of Funke and Strulik which advocates the horizontal integration and find that simulated durations of the South-to-North transfers and convergence are reduced under the vertical integration compared to the horizontal counterpart.