북한무역 및 남북교역이 북한경제성장에 미치는 효과 분석

Abstract

This study analyzes the growing influence of North Korea's and inter-Korean trade on North Korea's economic growth, and examines some of the implications for the future direction of economic or political policies. Major analyses show that the North Korea's average economic growth rate for the years 1999-2003 that was driven by inter-Korean trade hovered at 1.2% up to 2.3% and the growth rate by North Korea's trade stood at 2.4%. The rates are surprisingly high, roughly equivalent to the 2.8% average growth rate for the corresponding years estimated by the Bank of Korea. These results suggest that without the growth of North Korea's and inter-Korean trade for the years, North Korea could have slipped into negative economic growth. Another striking result arising from the analyses is that inter-Korean trade, although it accounts for one-fifth of North Korea's overall trade volume, has a significant effect on the North Korea's economic rebound, which stems largely from "non-trade" nature or South Korea's unilateral economic or humanitarian assistance.