내생적 최적통화지역 관점에서 재조명하는 남북한 통화통합 추진 관련 논의
How to Pursue Korean Monetary Union: A New Perspective Based on the Endogeneity of Optimal Currency Area Criteria
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
많은 불확실성이 있을 수밖에 없지만, 남북한 통일이 독일 통일의 경우와 같이 급작스럽게 이루어질 개연성을 완전히 부정하기는 어려울 것이다. 그런 만치 남북한 통일이 언제 이루어지더라도 통일 이후 경제적 혼란이 최소화될 수 있도록 어떠한 방식으로 남북한 통화통합을 추진할 것인가에 대한 준비는 사전에 충분히갖추어져 있어야 할 것이다. 그러나 남북한 통화통합과 관련한 기존의 연구들은북한 지역을 대상으로 하는 통화정책 운용 방식, 남북한 통화 간의 구체적인 통합방식 등 세부적인 측면에서 체계적인 대안을 제시하지 못하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 취지에서 본 연구에서는 내생적 최적통화지역 이론의 관점에서 유럽 및 독일의 통화통합 경험을 살펴보고 이를 바탕으로 남북한 통화통합의 구체적인 실행계획 설정을 위한 기본 틀을 모색하였다. 연구 결과, 통일 이후 남북한경제가 한시적으로 분리 운영되는 상황에서 북한 지역 중앙은행은 통일 초기부터금리를 중심으로 통화정책을 수행하는 것이 필요할 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고그에 맞추어 남북한 통화 간의 교환비율은 초기부터 변동환율제에 의해 결정되도록 하는 것이 타당할 것으로 나타났다. 이는 내생적 최적통화지역 이론의 관점에서 볼 때 북한 지역에 대한 남한 기업 등의 직접투자를 활성화하고 이를 통해 남북한 간의 교역을 증대시켜 나가는 것이 통일 한국정부의 재정 부담을 최소화하는 가운데 통일 이후 남북한을 최적통화지역으로 전환시켜 나감에 있어 가장 중요하다는 점에 근거한 것이다.
Abstract
There are bound to be many uncertainties, but it will be difficult to completely deny the possibility that Korean reunification will take place as suddenly as in the case of German reunification. No matter when the reunification takes place, preparations for how to promote Korean monetary union should be fully prepared in advance so that economic turmoil can be minimized after the reunification. However, existing studies on Korean monetary union have not provided systematic alternatives in detail, such as how monetary policy should be operated in North Korea and how Korean monetary union should be pursued. For this purpose, this study examined the experiences of monetary union in Europe and Germany from the perspective of the endogeneity of optimal currency area criteria and sought a basic framework for establishing a specific action plan for Korean monetary union. As a result, based on the situation that the economy of North Korea region is temporarily separated and operated from that of South Korea region after reunification, it was analyzed that it would be necessary for the newly established central bank in North Korea region to implement monetary policy centered on interest rates from the beginning of reunification. Accordingly, it was found that it would be reasonable to allow the exchange rate between the two Korea regions’ currencies to be determined by the floating exchange rate system from the beginning. This is because boosting direct investment by South Korean companies in North Korea region and increasing trade between the two Korea regions are the most important in inducing the two Korea regions to meet the requirements of the endogeneity of optimal currency area criteria after reunification while minimizing the financial burden on the unified Korean government.
참고문헌 (69)
- 금융체제 이행 및 통합 사례: 남북한 금융통합에 대한 시사점, "김병연", 한국은행, ~, pp.BOK 경제연구, 2014-32 (2014)
- 김병연, "북한이탈주민의 인지적 능력과 경제적 성과", 경제학연구, 66(1), pp.5~31 (2018), 한국경제학회[DOI]
- 통일 후 남북한경제 한시분리운영방안: 통화·금융·재정분야, "김영찬", 대외경제정책연구원, 16~02, pp.중장기통상전략연구 16-02 (2016)
- 문성민, "남북한 통화통합 방식에 관한 연구 : 사례 분석을 중심으로", 경제논집, 48(1) (2009), 서울대학교 경제연구소
- 안예홍, "통일 이후 남북한 경제통합 방식에 대한 연구", 금융경제연구, (291) (2007), 한국은행 금융경제연구원
- 남북한 화폐통합의 효과와 경제통합의 전망, "윤덕룡", 대외경제정책연구원, ~, pp.대외경제정책연구원 2004-45 (2004)
- 이 석, "남북한 장기 경제추세 비교와 대북정책에의 시사점" (2011), 한국개발연구원
- 남북한 화폐의 구매력 비교와 동서독 화폐통합 사례의 시사점, "이승호", 자본시장연구원, ~, pp.이슈보고서19-16 (2019)
- 구매력 비교를 통한 남북한 통화의 교환비율 결정에 관한 일고찰, "이영섭", 한국개발연구원, ~, pp.KDI연구속보 제26호 (1993)
- 통일 후 남북한경제 한시분리운영방안: 경제적 필요성과 법적 타당성, "임수호", 대외경제정책연구원, ~, pp.중장기통상전략연구 16-01 (2016)
- 남북한 경제통합 연구: 북한경제의 한시적 분리 운영방안, "전홍택", 한국개발연구원, ~, pp.연구보고서 2012-10 (2012)
- 남북한 화폐·금융통합에 대한 연구: 시나리오별 분석, "전홍택", 한국개발연구원, ~, pp.연구보고서2002-04 (2002)
- 한반도 통일의 비용과 편익: 정치․사회․경제 분야, "조한범", 통일연구원, ~, pp.통일 비용·편익 종합연구 2015-01 (2015)
- 조태형, "북한의 장기 경제성장률 및 국민소득 추정: 1956~1989년", 경제학연구, 69(1), pp.5~49 (2021), 한국경제학회[DOI]
- Agur, Itai, "How did European institutional integration and intra-European trade interact?", ÉCONOMIE INTERNATIONALE, (109), pp.107~146 (2007)
- Anderton, Robert, "The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices", Journal of Financial Transformation, 19, pp.35~48 (2007)
- Bayoumi, Tamim, "International Trade and Finance: New Frontiers for Research" (2009), Cambridge University Press
- Beck, Krzysztof, "Why Business Cycles Diverge? Structural Evidence from the European Union", Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 133 (2021)
- Blum, Ulrich, "The Eastern German Growth Trap : Structural Limits to Convergence?", Intereconomics, 54(6), pp.359~368 (2019)
- Broadberry, Stephen, "Aggregate and Per Capita GDP in Europe, 1870-2000 : Continental, Regional and National Data with Changing Boundaries", Scandinavian Economic History Review, 60(1), pp.79~107 (2012)
- Brülhart, Marius, "An Account of Global Intra-industry Trade, 1962-2006", The World Economy, 32(3), pp.401~459 (2009)
- Brülhart, Marius, "Adjustment to the European Single Market : Inferences from Intra-industry Trade Patterns", Journal of Economic Studies, 25(3), pp.225~247 (1998)
- Carril-Caccia, Federico, "Foreign Direct Investment and its Drivers: A Global and EU Perspective", ECB Economic Bulletin, (4) (2018)
- Campos, Nauro F., "Institutional Integration and Economic Growth in Europe", Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, pp.88~104 (2019)
- Caetano, José, "In Search for the Determinants of Intra-industry Trade within an Enlarged Europe", South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 2, pp.163~183 (2007)
- Cerqueira, Pedro Andre, "Measuring the Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization using a Panel Approach", Economics Letters, 102, pp.106~108 (2009)
- The Economic and Monetary Union : Past, Present and Future, "Dabrowski, Marek", ~, pp.CASE Reports, No. 497 (2019)
- Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What Brings a Single Currency Closer Together, "De Grauwe, Paul", ~, pp.ECB Working Paper, No. 468 (2005)
- A history of European Monetary Integration, "Delivorias, Angelos", European Parliamentary Research Service, ~ (2015)
- Diaz-Mora, Carmen, "The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries : A Panel Data Approach for the European Union", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 138(2), pp.291~316 (2002)
- Dyck, Alexander, "Privatization in Eastern Germany : Management Selection and Economic Transition", American Economic Review, 87(4), pp.565~597 (1997)
- Eurostat, "GDP Per Capita, Consumption Per Capita and Price Level Indices", ~ (2022)
- Eurostat, "GDP Per Capita, Consumption Per Capita and Comparative Price Levels in Europe, Statistics in foucs 112", 2008, 2008
- Eurostat, "International Trade in Goods for the EU - An Overview", ~ (2022)
- Fatás, A., "EMU : Countries or Regions? Lessons from the EMS Experience", European Economic Review, 55(3-5,), pp.743~751 (1997)
- Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market, "Fontagné, L.", CEPII, ~, pp.Working Paper 97-07 (1997)
- The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, "Frankel, Jeffrey A.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, No. 5700 (1996)
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria", The Economic Journal, 108, pp.1009~1025 (1998)
- Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output, "Frankel, Jeffrey A.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, No. 7857 (2000)
- Fratzscher, Marcel, "Lessons for Europe from German Monetary Union", DIW Economic Bulletin (2015)
- Freeman, Daan, "Trade Benefits of the EU and the Internal Market", CPB Communication (2022), CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
- Goujard, Antoine, "The Surge in Inflation Dispersion in the Euro Area:Key Drivers and Policy Responses", VOXEU, 2022
- Gramlich, John, "East Germany has Narrowed Economic Gap with West Germany Since Fall of Communism, but Still Lags", Short Read, Pew Research Center, ~ (2019)
- GTAI, "Industry Clusters in Eastern Germany", GERMANY TRADE & INVEST, ~ (2015)
- Günther, Jutta, "Eastern Germany in the Process of Catching up : The Role of Foreign and West German Investors in Technological Renewal", Eastern European Economics, 43(3), pp.78~102 (2005)
- Head, Keith, "The United States of Europe : A Gravity Model Evaluation of the Four Freedoms", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(2), pp.23~48 (2021)
- Hein, Eckhard, "Macroeconomics" (2005), University Library of Munich
- Hochreiter, E., "The Advantages of Tying Austria’s Hands : The Success of Hard Currency Strategy", European Journal of Political Economy, 11(1), pp.83~111 (1995)
- Issing, Otmar, "One Size Fits All! A Single Monetary Policy for the Euro Area", Speech at the International Research Forum (2005)
- Intra-industry Trade in an Enlarged Europe: Trend of Intra-industry Trade in the European Union and its Determinants, "Kang, Yoo-Duk", Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, ~, pp.KIEP Working Paper, No. 10-02 (2010)
- Lane, Philip R., "The Real Effets of European Monetary Union", Journal of Economic Perspective, 20(4), pp.47~66 (2006)
- Mazzolini, Giulio, "Chart: Sharp decline in intra-EU Trade over the Past 4 Years", Blog Post, ~ (2014)
- Mendonça, António, "The Shrinking Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria : Evidence from the European Monetary Union-A Beta Regression Approach", Economics Letters, 113, pp.65~69 (2011)
- Mundell, Robert A., "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas", American Economic Review, 51(4), pp.657~665 (1961)
- CEP Study: Germany Gains Most from Euro, "Ng, Nicole", Centre for European Policy, ~ (2019)
- Intra-industry and Intra-firm Trade and the Internationalisation of Production, "OECD", OECD, ~, pp.OECD Economic Outlook 71 (2002)
- Palm, Franz, "The European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the European Monetary Union", De Economist, 144(2), pp.305~324 (1996)
- Paqué, Karl-Heinz, "German Reunification, 30 Years Later : A Success Story" (2020), Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
- How Germany Benefits from the Euro in Economic Terms, "Petersen, Thieβ", BertelsmannStiftung, ~, pp.Policy Brief, No. 2013 (2011), 01
- Posen, Adam S., "The Euro Payoff : Germany’s Economic Advantages from a Large and Diverse Euro Area", Internationale Politik-Global Edition (2011)
- East Germany Today: Successes and Failures, "Ragnitz, Joachim", ~, pp.CESifo DICE Report, 2009 (2009), 04
- Rose, Andrew K., "One Money, One Market : Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade", Economic Policy, 15(30), pp.7~45 (2000)
- Rose, Andrew K., "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?", Open Economies Review, 28(1), pp.1~18 (2017)
- The Evolving Composition of Intra-EU Trade, "Stehrer, Robert", The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), ~, pp.Research Report 414 (2016)
- Suh, Jeong Eui, "An Economic Thought about How to Detect Currency Manipulation", Economics Bulletin, 40(2), pp.1486~1497 (2020)
- The World in Eurpoe, global FDIs Towards Europe: Intra-European FDI, "Sunesen, Eva Rytter", EPSON, ~ (2018)
- Tavlas, George S., "The ‘new’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas", The World Economy, 16(6), pp.663~685 (1993)
- George B. Tawadros, "THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA: AN APPLICATION TO ASEAN", International Economic Journal, 22(3), pp.335~343 (2008), 한국국제경제학회
- Veld, Jan in 't, "The Economic Benefits of the EU Single Market in Goods and Services", Journal of Policy Modeling, 41(5), pp.803~818 (2019)